Consensus of analysts euribor up to 12 monthswhich is the main indicator in determining the interest rates of floating rate housing loans, It will be just over 3% in 2023, in any case, it is not far from the average of 2.8% already shown in the first 15 days of November. Prepared By Forecast Panel Savings Banks Foundation (Funcas) revised upwards its forecasts for the development of interest rates this Wednesday, after the European Central Bank (ECB) has undertaken the last two increases in the official currency’s price, which they set at 2%. .
Panelists are betting on it now The official price of the coin will continue to rise up to 3%A level that will remain stable from the second quarter of 2023. The ECB deposit facility, on the other hand, will reach 2.5% at the end of the forecast period, one point more than the previous agreement in September.
For the 12-month Euribor, after the 2022 ‘rally’, this indicator is expected to average 3.1% in the middle months of next year and show a slight downward trend in its last stretch. After a massive rise of more than 3 points in 2022, the mortgage indicator, which pulled the 12-year Euribor from a negative rate of -0.477 in January to an average of 2.8% in mid-November, at least for now, stabilizing around 3.1% through 2023. will tend to.
In the section on interest rates, The Spanish economy’s forecast panel for November also corrected the 10-year bond yield upwards, which will be close to 3.5% through 2023., almost half a point more than the September Panel. Currently, the yield on the Spanish 10-year bond exceeds 3.1%, 30 basis points higher than in September. “The risk premium has stabilized at moderate levels close to 105 points, a level that indicates the absence of financial tensions in the public debt market, at least for now,” the Funcas Panel said in the latest.
Growth, inflation and deficit
Regarding the macroeconomic forecasts, the Funcas Panel expects the Spanish economy to grow by 4.5% this year; It included a review of the National Account figures for the second quarter. In addition, GDP grew by 0.2% in the third quarter, above expectations. For the fourth, most panelists predict negative growth. The consensus for 2023 lowered its GDP growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.1%, with zero growth in the first quarter and increases of around 0.5%-0.7% in the remainder.
forecast for average annual inflation In 2022, it was revised upwards by one-tenth, to 8.7%while the core remains at 5%. For 2023, the forecast of the average overall rate increased by three-tenths to 4.1% and the underlying two-tenths forecast to 4%. The inter-year ratios of the general index expected for December 2022 and 2023 are 7.1% and 2.8%, respectively.
this public deficit will remain at high levels. According to the consensus of the 19 analysts who make up the Funcas Panel, the negative balance of public accounts in particular will be 4.8% of GDP this year and 4.5% next year.
Source: Informacion
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