technological dominance
Dmitry Peskov argues that no nation today holds the level of technological dominance required for the sustained power of great states in the decades ahead.
Technological dominance, as he defines it, means a reality where services like Apple Pay remain functional and secure on a citizen’s device, while a society that lacks such dominance could see messaging apps suddenly disabled. This shift from a distant concern to a present risk is described as both a concrete threat and a real possibility in current times, not a speculative fantasy, according to his RBC article.
He notes that 2020 marked a reset of the global order and outlines four plausible development scenarios for nations. The first is New Left Nationalism, characterized by rising calls to take and divide, a push toward universal equality, and a prioritization of national economies. Examples cited include slogans such as America First, India First, and China First of All.
The second scenario is Green Post-Capitalism, where nations move away from direct monetization and emphasize environmental concerns and carbon footprints.
A third trajectory is Islandization, involving the fragmentation of major techno-economic blocs. The final, perhaps most intriguing, is the Half-Life scenario, which envisages a period of erosion or dissolution of international institutions.
“Islands”
According to the expert, the most probable path for Russia in the coming years is islandization. He describes a foreseeable collapse of globalization and the old global security framework of the twentieth century, with a restart of global technology markets, national standards, and relocalized production of critical goods. In such a world, nations and large techno-economic blocs would seek to produce food, medicine, and other essentials within their own borders.
To reach this state, Russia would need technological dominance, Peskov argues. Technological dominance would enable the country to construct its own island, where decisions are made and accountability is clear. This is presented as the central narrative for the next decade not only for Russia but for major players like the United States, China, and possibly India as well.
He emphasizes a response to the green agenda as a stepping stone toward achieving technological dominance, proposing the creation of a national techno-economic bloc, an export package for agricultural products, and new-generation transport and logistics corridors linking Russia with Asia. Alongside cooperation with other nations, he envisions global security exports and solutions to human capital challenges. While the tasks may appear formidable, they are not deemed impossible.
Peskov also contends that a new cold war has begun this year, signaling heightened strategic competition on multiple fronts.
cognitive dominance
The discussion then shifts to cognitive dominance, described as a critical prerequisite for technological leadership. Cognitive dominance refers to the ability to interpret meaning accurately and to distinguish essential needs from external influences that may be imposed by others. The aim is to avoid indecision and to act with clear purpose.
He argues that over the last two decades Russia has seen a decline in cognitive sovereignty, with harmful, toxic patterns in economic, technological, and educational sectors taking root.
Technological sovereignty, in his view, should address basic necessities: ensuring security, securing energy and food independence, delivering essential goods, maintaining transport connectivity, fostering knowledge creation, and ensuring access to production capabilities. He advocates for independent engine and climate technology programs and emphasizes that technology should not be sold for profit alone. Yet he also stresses that Russia should remain connected to the wider world.
Looking ahead, he suggests opportunities for mirror-style exchanges where hardware like processors might be traded for missiles, while research and development efforts are also shared. The functioning of systems in one country could depend on innovations from another, reinforcing a networked, interdependent future.
The proposal concludes with the plan to establish a second industrial pillar in Russia that operates through development teams, mid-sized technology companies, and universities rather than solely through ministries and large corporations.