The current domestic fleet includes more than 600 Boeing and Airbus aircraft, and officials indicate these may eventually be replaced by the Russian MS-21. In a Life interview, Avia.ru chief Roman Gusarov outlined the core idea: the substitution of imports could take about a decade. He noted that the scale of the change requires roughly 600 to 700 MS-21s to replace foreign-built jets. Through 2030, MS-21s are contracted exclusively for Aeroflot, yet other carriers will need to join the transition. Gusarov believes foreign aircraft will continue to operate over the coming ten years as domestic production expands and catches up.
Gusarov also highlighted that demand for the MS-21 is expected to grow as production ramps up at the Irkutsk Aviation Plant. He suggested that the nation will scale up not only the aircraft program itself but also the surrounding mechanical, assembly, and related industries to support higher output. The forecast points to a broad industrial push to sustain mass production and to diversify the sector beyond a single company.
Earlier, Denis Manturov, Deputy Prime Minister and head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, spoke during a meeting with the Russian president about a preferential aircraft charter program. The plan envisions delivering 63 domestic aircraft to Aeroflot from 2023 to 2025, underscoring the government’s commitment to increasing domestic aviation capacity and reducing reliance on foreign suppliers. This multi-year initiative aligns with broader objectives to strengthen national manufacturing capabilities while expanding the fleet with homegrown tech.
Industry observers say the path to a fully domestic fleet involves coordinated efforts across design, production, and supply chains. If the MS-21 program maintains its current trajectory, Russia could see a gradual shift toward greater independence in commercial aviation. The journey will require sustained investment, robust testing, and continued collaboration among aircraft builders, suppliers, and airlines. In parallel, operators will need to adapt fleet planning, maintenance practices, and training to integrate the MS-21 smoothly alongside legacy and newer generations of aircraft. The overall outlook emphasizes a strategic transition rather than a rapid replacement, with milestones tied to factory capacity, certification timelines, and market demand. As production scales, the industry expects to see more domestic variants and defense-sector synergies that could further strengthen Russia’s aerospace ecosystem. In summary, the decade ahead is framed as a deliberate shift toward domestic capability, with the MS-21 as a central pillar in the plan, supported by state programs and commercial partnerships that will guide the renewal of the nation’s air transport backbone.