Apple iPhone Demand Outlook and Market Dynamics for 2024
Analysts expect a softer year for iPhone sales in 2024, with a potential decline in demand in key markets. A widely cited insider and analyst from TF International Securities, Ming-Chi Kuo, has weighed in on the topic, noting shifts that could influence Apple’s production plans and market share.
According to Kuo, Apple is projected to reduce semiconductor component orders for iPhone production in 2024 by a substantial amount. This would translate to a noticeable drop in annual smartphone shipments, with estimates ranging from around 10% to 15%. The primary driver identified is waning demand in China, alongside ongoing segmentation within the premium smartphone sector. In particular, foldable and premium models in broader market segments have started to draw attention away from traditional flagship devices, a trend that could soften demand for ongoing iPhone cycles.
Based on these projections, a TF International Securities analyst suggests that Apple could experience the most pronounced decline in smartphone market share among major global vendors by year-end 2024. In this scenario, Samsung may reclaim a leading position in physical market share as Apple faces competitive pressure from premium devices and evolving consumer preferences.
Kuo also offered his general outlook for the upcoming iPhone lineup. Information from trusted sources indicates that the 2024 generation may not deliver dramatic, headline-grabbing innovations. Instead, the emphasis is expected to be on broad platform enhancements, with stronger integration of artificial intelligence features into iOS 18 and improved user experiences across devices.
Additionally, there have been historical reports about shifting market dynamics in other regions, including notable mobilization and consumer electronics adoption patterns in 2023. These broader macro trends can influence demand cycles and device lifecycle decisions for global manufacturers, including Apple.