Towards a permanent drought?

Also, the Spaniards experienced three heat waves, confirming once again how the trend of summer stretches to the detriment of autumn and spring.

This situation is by no means temporary, as the average temperature in Spain has increased by about 1.4ºC since the 1950s, when precipitation decreased by 12%, as AEMET points out in its post-summer balance sheet. These are data reflecting the effects of greenhouse gas emissions in Spain.

This gradual change in precipitation and temperatures and the usual rhythms of the seasons have seriously disrupted the industry on which one of the pillars of human life depends: food security.

Farmers have to deal with drought, floods, abnormal temperatures, seasonal changes, early flowering, increased pests… a range of factors that have their common roots in climate change.

2ºC rise scenario

The cost of these challenges is already tangible for the Spanish countryside, which loses 6% of the value of its agricultural production each year due to the ravages of global warming, for a total of around 550 million euros. This is how the report explains it “The countdown begins. The effects of climate change on Spanish agriculture » Prepared by the Coordinator of Farmers and Farmers’ Organizations (COAG).

This report also summarizes the consequences for rural areas in a hypothetical scenario where the country’s average temperature rises by 2ºC by 2050.

In this case, the “climate bill” is 20% of the high-quality vineyard areas in Spain, 15% of the wheat yield in the central and south of the peninsula, and the olive groves in Andalusia suitable for growing rain-fed varieties such as hojiblanca and manzanilla.

This is because climatic instability leads to an increase in the frequency and intensity of hailstones or heavy rains that accelerate soil erosion. Likewise, higher temperatures can speed up growing times and necessitate early harvesting, even though the fruit is less developed. So much so that excessive water stress can trigger the reduction of the oleic acid content and flavors of the oil, while increasing the bitterness of the olive and reducing its size.

Ultimately, it can increase the distribution area of ​​the olive fly, as well as some subspecies of Xylella fastidiosa, a pest that affects 595 plant species. “It is more efficient and less costly to act urgently today to keep warming below 1.5ºC. Therefore, preventing climate change will not only help protect our agriculture and economy, but also ensure that an endless summer does not dry out our gastronomy, traditions, culture and identity,” warns Miguel Padilla, secretary general of COAG agriculture organization in Spain.

Vineyards are also exposed to the effects of global warming. According to the COAG report, in Castilla la Mancha, the varieties most likely to be affected by climate change are the oldest varieties such as Tempranillo or Chardonnay, which will reduce the optimal area for fine wines by 50%.

30% less in the world

On the planet as a whole, a decline in crop yields could cut world agricultural production by up to 30%, as another study published this week titled “Climate emergency, food production and Fair Trade” presented by the State Fair Trade warns. Coordinator on the occasion of the COP27 Climate Summit recently held in Egypt.

In the case of corn, wheat or peas, among other crops in the South African region, this loss can reach 80%. In addition, the land area devoted to coffee production could be reduced by 50%.

World agriculture knows that eventually it will have to adapt to the changes brought about by the climate crisis, especially for small producers. This change will be complex and above all expensive; That’s why representatives of more than 350 million small-scale producers and farmers took advantage of COP27 to make a call for help to world leaders.

“Producers in our networks feed millions of people and support hundreds of thousands of jobs, but they have reached a critical point,” Elisabeth Nsimadala, president of the East African Farmers Federation, said in that letter.

“Leaders must listen to farmers and put their political and financial weight on to foster change towards more diverse, sustainable and consolidated food production, particularly in agroecological agriculture, fisheries, forestry and grazing,” said Estrella Penunia, Secretary General of the Asian Farmers Association. For Sustainable Rural Development.

And the thing is, if the situation is already serious right now, the near future is even more worrying.

Baldomero Bellido, President of the Young Farmers Association (Asaja) in Malaga: “There are farmers who choose to uproot trees”

How serious is our drought situation for crops?

The prolonged drought situation we live in has gone from worrying to serious as time goes on. In many cases, it affects the harvest of current and future groves, making planting impossible for the next campaign and even seriously affecting the survival of the groves.

In which products is this decrease in yield more urgent?

The most affected products to date have been table olives, milled olives, mangoes, almonds, pistachios and chestnuts.

Does drought affect product quality?

There is great disposition rather than drought, but also because of the high temperatures in the summer months that immobilize the grove, and therefore the fruits develop both in size and in sugar and fat content. … which in turn affects the quality of the final product.

Some farmers decide to uproot their crops because of thirst. What does this mean for manufacturers? Could it affect the next campaign?

In the Axarquía region, there are farmers who, after or even before, choose jobs that minimize water consumption, even choosing to uproot trees to change the environment or planting, thus saving this water supply shortage situation. . This is not the case in the rest of the province, so despite the lack of water, concerns stem from rising costs, which means starting a new season with the uncertainty of the future of the crop, especially in drylands. and many have irrigation, with no guarantee of the source in question.

La Axarquía, Europe’s avocado and mango orchard, is experiencing one of its worst times as the La Viñuela reservoir drops to record levels. What is the situation?

It is true that the situation for this product in this region is complex; They have to organize themselves to take advantage of all sorts of hitherto untapped resources, such as purified water and future desalination.

How does the Andalusian government’s drought decree restricting agricultural irrigation affect the measures?

Concerns about watering restriction are normal, but when you are aware that there is no resource, you cannot logically go to it. This is why we are so insistent on doing hydraulic work that allows us to accumulate more resources and use those resources in scarce times like today. A few dates after the publication of the new hydrological planning cycle, it is of interest to us that future infrastructures remain clear to improve the condition of water bodies on the one hand and to improve the condition of water bodies on the other. the other is to be able to guarantee a greater accumulation of resources during high rainfall years.

After such a critical summer and now that the agricultural year has begun, what are your predictions for the winter?

The concern is huge and not only because of the main issue, water scarcity, but also because of the policy changes and demands in agriculture that we need to address for this new year. Many of them are incompatible with the current situation and of course cannot survive economically, so we foresee a significant loss of aid in our province and region due to the inability to meet all the new demands, and all this is aggravated. disproportionate increase in energy, fertilizer and feed costs supported by our agricultural and livestock farms.