In 2024, wine prices are expected to rise by about one third due to a tripling of the excise duty on wine. The authoritative examiner from the Fundamental Department of Trade Policy at the Russian University of Economics, Vyacheslav Cheglov, notes that the duty on wine will increase dramatically, a change set to influence retail prices across the market.
The first noticeable effect will appear in January 2024, with the excise increase scheduled to take full effect on May 1. Although the tax jump will occur later in the year, producers and retailers anticipate a price adjustment earlier as they prepare for the coming higher levy and its impact on the cost structure of wine products.
Cheglov emphasizes that wine producers will watch price parity closely and are likely to raise prices accordingly. His assessment suggests that the adjustment will not be uniform across all segments; cheaper wines may see the earliest and most noticeable price hikes, while higher-end selections could experience more gradual changes as stores balance consumer demand with the new tax environment.
He further explains that the initial effect will be a rise in the cost of inexpensive wine, with the overall bill expected to climb by roughly 30 percent by the middle of the year, taking into account the higher excise and the pressures from the cost of imported wines. This projection reflects not only domestic taxation changes but also shifts in exchange rates, supplier costs, and retail margins that often accompany tax reforms in the wine sector.
Prior to these developments, Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko indicated that the price level of the traditional New Year table had already risen by about 8 percent due to seasonal factors. Items driving the increase included citrus fruits such as tangerines, poultry, eggs, and champagne, illustrating how a combination of commodity prices and festive demand can influence overall household costs during the holiday period.
As the deputy prime minister pointed out, the price of domestic sparkling wine rose by no more than five percent, highlighting that tax policy changes may not uniformly impact all categories of wine and sparkling beverages. This nuance underscores the varying dynamics within the market, where value brands may react differently from premium labels as producers adjust to shifting consumer budgets and import costs.
Earlier observations highlighted the purchasing patterns of residents in major cities, where the most common shopping items before the New Year typically include a mix of wine, sparkling beverages, and related celebration products. The timing of price movements in these categories often aligns with seasonal demand, holidays, and the broader economic context, creating a window of volatility the market tends to feel more acutely during festive periods.