The departure of the largest Western grain traders from the Russian market could translate into substantial losses, reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, if they end up exiting. Analysts point to a fall in control over bunkering operations and export terminals that move agricultural crops to buyers abroad as a primary source of economic impact. This assessment appears in coverage by Bloomberg.
In late March, RBC reported that the Russian subsidiary of the American company Cargill would halt grain exports from Russia for the 2023/2024 agricultural year, spanning from July 1, 2023, through June 30, 2024. In a follow-up, TASS, citing the Ministry of Agriculture, clarified that from July 2023 the Canadian company Viterra, a participant in shipping Russian grain to international markets, would suspend its activities within the country.
The withdrawal of these Western players is expected to shift influence to local agricultural suppliers. With Cargill and Viterra stepping back, a greater share of market activity will likely be absorbed by domestic exporters who already handle significant volumes of grain and related logistics.
The transition is centered on the ownership and operation of critical logistics assets that move grain from farms along the Volga toward the Black Sea ports. Western traders will need to relinquish their stakes in bunkers and export terminals, a move that could involve meaningful losses as assets are reassigned or revalued in the market.
Bloomberg’s March 30 report suggested that Russian grain exporters could emerge with certain advantages from the withdrawal of the largest Western traders. The broader picture shows continued integration of Russian grain into global markets, with foreign companies continuing to facilitate shipments into Russia while sourcing goods from outside the Russian Federation. This dynamic indicates that international demand for Russian grain may persist, even as the ownership of key export infrastructure evolves and new local producers assume greater responsibility for meeting world market needs.