The share held by Western financial institutions in Russia remains a small slice of the overall market, estimated at roughly one to two percent of assets and loans. That means, for the average borrower or saver, the withdrawal of these institutions should hardly disrupt everyday banking services. This perspective reflects comments from Pavel Samiev, an economist and chief executive of the analytical agency BusinessDrom, as reported by Lente.ru.
Expanding on the point, Samiev notes that even if the three largest Western banks were to exit Russia entirely, the remaining banks would constitute only about one to two percent of total market assets and lending. In practical terms, if these institutions leave the country, the impact on day-to-day banking would not be critical for ordinary customers. The banking landscape would adjust, with a possible reshuffling of ownership rather than a sudden loss of service.
According to the analyst, Western banks have reduced their footprint in Russia each year. In the most recent year, their share stood around five percent, a figure that already signals a shrinking role. He adds that it may not be necessary for every credit institution to cease operations completely; rather, ownership changes and a selective market exit could occur, with perhaps a dozen banks stepping away from the market altogether.
Samiev also touches on programs tied to auto lending. Some banks have supported loan schemes linked to car sales. However, the current sanctions-driven supply constraints have undermined the profitability and feasibility of such programs within Russia, making these activities largely untenable under present conditions.
Earlier in the week, Izvestiya cited analysts from ACRA, a rating agency, suggesting that additional banks could retreat from the Russian financial sector due to international sanctions. Estimates indicate that about 25 to 30 banks might leave the market in the near term if the geopolitical and regulatory environment remains unchanged. This forecast highlights a trend toward consolidation and increased caution among remaining players, rather than a broad collapse of banking services for consumers.