Vietnam as a Strategic Market for Russian Coal Exports: 2025–2035 Outlook

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Vietnam stands out as a strategic path for Russia’s commodity markets. In this context, the plan foresees Vietnam importing substantial quantities of coal each year, with projections ranging from 50 to 83 million tons annually from 2025 through 2035. This outlook was highlighted in an article by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, published in Energy Policy, which outlines the evolving trade dynamics in the region.

In the near term, Vietnam is seen as a growing consumer of coal to support its expanding industrial base. The project envisions annual imports within the 50–83 million ton band for the period 2025–2035, reflecting sustained demand aligned with local manufacturing and energy needs.

Data from May 18 indicates that Japanese trade statistics for April 2023 show a marked reduction in purchases of coal and liquefied natural gas from Russia. Russian coal imports to Japan dropped by about 80.8 percent year over year, while LNG imports declined roughly 10.6 percent, signaling shifts in energy sourcing and regional market adjustments.

Earlier reports from the Consulate General of the Russian Federation in Harbin noted a sharp uptick in China’s coal imports from Russia during the first 40 days of 2023, with volumes tripling as trade routes via the Zabaikalsk-Manchuria corridor gained momentum. This trend underscored a growing connectivity in northeast Asia for Russian coal shipments.

Industry observers, citing data from various sources, noted a stabilization in export prices for coal moving through Far East ports and the European sector of Russia. The spread between thermal coal prices in Far Eastern ports and those in the European part of Russia began to narrow as regional prices adjusted in response to evolving global demand and supply conditions. This price alignment reflects broader shifts in energy markets and the gradual integration of Russian coal into diverse regional markets.

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