The VEB Research and Expertise Institute projects a 2023 GDP growth of 2.7% for Russia, with a more restrained expansion of 1.1% anticipated for 2024. This assessment is summarized by RBC as part of ongoing macroeconomic coverage for the region.
According to the institute, a 2.7% GDP rise this year would support stronger manufacturing activity and sustained consumer spending. Yet experts expect growth to slow in the latter part of this year as the Central Bank of the Russian Federation tightens monetary policy, which could temper demand and investment momentum.
Analysts expect that the 2024–2026 period will face headwinds from sanctions, ongoing budget consolidation, and a softer global economy. Projections typically show growth easing to around 1.1% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to about 2.3% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, assuming policy settings and external conditions remain modestly supportive.
VEB also notes potential upside if policy becomes more accommodative, if international payment architectures diversify away from the dollar and euro toward broader settlement mechanisms, and if investment activity rises through large private and state-enterprise earnings. In this scenario, annual growth could approach 3.5–4%, underscoring the role of manufacturing and construction, as well as mechanical engineering, as potential growth engines for the Russian economy.
Vladimir Salnikov, Deputy Director General at the Center, explains that the seemingly restrained 2024 outlook partly reflects an inter-year variation effect — when stronger growth is forecast for the current year, the subsequent year may appear weaker. In macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting, this pattern is recognized, though a sustained downturn is not anticipated. He also notes that the Central Bank’s ongoing policy tightening will influence the trajectory of GDP growth. In mid-year, the regulator raised the key rate substantially, a move that can slow economic momentum into late 2024 and beyond. Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam Financial Group, observes that higher interest costs and a cooling budget pace are likely to be felt toward the end of the year and into the next, potentially weighing on growth.
Updated macro projections for Russia’s socio-economic development show a 2023 GDP growth around 1.2%, with an anticipated 2024 result near 2.0%. Earlier scenarios from the Central Bank of Russia outline multiple development paths through 2026, highlighting the sensitivity of the outlook to policy choices and external conditions.