US Dollar Exchange Outlook Against the Ruble
The Russian ruble faces renewed pressure as analysts project higher USD rates and volatility driven by shifts in oil and commodity markets. In a 2025 forecast reported by RBC Investments, chief macroeconomist Anton Prokudin from Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company outlined a scenario in which the dollar strengthens beyond 200 rubles during the forecast horizon. This assessment builds on the expectation that global commodity prices, especially oil, will trend lower in the near term and then stabilize at a lower plateau, influencing the ruble’s value and the overall currency trajectory.
According to Prokudin, the timeline points to the dollar surpassing 120 rubles by the end of 2024 and climbing to around 124 rubles by mid-2025, with the potential to press toward the 200 ruble mark in 2025. He notes that the ruble’s decline is closely tied to movements in oil prices and other commodities. A sustained drop in these prices can widen the trade deficit and exert downward pressure on the currency, while any rebound in energy markets could provide some support for the ruble, albeit within a context of ongoing external and macroeconomic headwinds.
Prokudin described a structural framework for the ruble that resembles past episodes of sharp devaluation followed by a period of adjustment. He uses a simplified analogy to illustrate potential outcomes: if historical exchange rates from a lower value era were scaled, the current dynamics might yield substantially weaker levels before any meaningful recovery. The comparison to the devaluation phase seen around 2014 to 2016 illustrates how a currency can undergo a pronounced move and then gradually stabilize as energy prices and domestic policy responses adjust. In this view, a path toward a roughly 190 ruble level is plausible under a scenario of high volatility, with eventual cooling and a possible return to more moderate ranges around the 110 ruble zone as conditions normalize. This perspective is offered as a framework for understanding risk and potential currency ranges rather than as a precise forecast.
As the calendar turns toward March, Vladimir Grigoriev, a candidate of economic sciences and a financial analyst, suggested that there could be a strengthening phase for the U.S. dollar, but placed a cap at around 77 rubles in a conservative scenario. His perspective adds another layer to the dialogue, highlighting the sensitivity of the ruble to external shocks, including shifts in global growth, capital flows, and geopolitical risk premium. The convergence of these viewpoints points to a broad band of possible outcomes, with the possibility of sharp moves in either direction depending on how oil prices, sanctions regimes, and monetary policy evolve over the next several quarters. [Prokudin, RBC Investments; Grigoriev, financial analyst, market commentary]