Maxim Osadchiy, head of the analytics department at BKF Bank, warned that if the next U.S. president follows through on campaign pledges, the national debt could surge to new records. He noted that the policy mix under discussion would likely raise borrowing needs and complicate fiscal management, especially if domestic growth stalls. The assessment reflects a cautious view held by many bankers who monitor debt dynamics and political risk, and it signals that a broad policy shift in Washington would ripple through financial markets and consumer prices alike, according to analysts familiar with the debt landscape.
Trump has proposed a tariff program that would raise the incentives for global trade to shift. He suggested steep surcharges on Chinese goods, in the range of 60 to 100 percent, and a general tariff of 10 to 20 percent on a wide spectrum of imports. He also floated a 100 percent levy on materials from countries that resist settling trade in dollars. These proposals would reshape cost structures for manufacturers, influence consumer prices, and provoke responses from trading partners. Analysts say the plan could accelerate shifts in supply chains while potentially triggering retaliatory measures that affect exporters and inflation risk.
Osadchiy argued that Trump’s right-wing populist policies would likely push the United States toward a new peak in debt accumulation. In his view, the combination of expansive promises and protectionist measures tends to widen deficits while complicating the management of existing debt service. The bank executive stressed that debt dynamics depend on growth, borrowing costs, and the pace of fiscal consolidation, all of which are shaped by political decisions and market expectations.
Currently, the U.S. national debt stands around 35.8 trillion dollars. Global public debt hovers near 102 trillion, meaning the United States accounts for roughly one-third of all government liabilities worldwide. The figures reflect a long-term trend in which debt loads have risen alongside financial assets and fiscal risks, even as economies strive to stabilize after disruptions in global markets. The scale underscores how U.S. fiscal policy choices can influence borrowing costs, currency markets, and the affordability of long-term obligations for households and governments alike.
A former Russian State Duma deputy noted that Trump’s electoral victory signals shifts in global politics. He suggested that a wave of populism and skepticism toward established trade arrangements resonates beyond the United States, affecting policy debates in other major economies. While not predicting specific outcomes, the observer framed the episode as a reminder that political surprises can alter debt trajectories, inflation expectations, and international cooperation in unpredictable ways.