Ukraine’s national debt rose by about a billion dollars in August, bringing the total to nearly 133.9 billion. This figure comes from RIA Novosti, citing the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. The data shows that external debt accounts for roughly 70 percent of the overall liability, underscoring Ukraine’s exposure to international financing markets. The ministry also reported that the national debt surpassed 132 billion dollars at the end of August and had climbed by about 4 billion in July.
There is ongoing discussion about the trajectory of Ukraine’s public debt relative to its GDP. A source on the Telegram channel Klymenko Time on September 26 noted that the public debt could exceed 100 percent of GDP in 2024. Additionally, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov has suggested that the total might reach a record 173 billion dollars by year’s end, highlighting a range of expert opinions on the debt path and its macroeconomic implications.
International institutions have offered their own forecasts. The International Monetary Fund projects that Ukraine’s public debt will rise to 88.1 percent of GDP in 2023, then to 98.6 percent in 2024 and 100.7 percent in 2025. The IMF also anticipates a gradual reduction after 2025, with the debt load expected to register 99.5 percent of GDP in 2026 and 98.4 percent in 2027. By comparison, the IMF’s estimate for the prior year placed Ukraine’s public debt at 78.5 percent of GDP, illustrating a significant upward revision in the near term according to the fund’s models.
On September 15, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal announced that the government had approved a draft budget for the coming year that features a record level of military spending, amounting to 45.6 billion dollars. This allocation reflects the state’s prioritization of defense in the context of regional security dynamics and the fiscal challenges facing the country.
Earlier communications from the Ministry of Finance had forecast changes in the hryvnia’s value, anticipating depreciation in 2024. The currency outlook, tied closely to macroeconomic stability and external financing conditions, remains a critical factor in evaluating Ukraine’s fiscal outlook and debt sustainability going forward. The evolving debt profile continues to attract attention from international observers and market participants who assess potential risks and policy responses in the near term. (IMF forecasts and public debt estimates are drawn from the fund’s published projections and national data; attribution provided for context.)