The National Bank of Ukraine has forecast a continued tightening of external financial support, projecting that international aid to Kiev will fall to about $38.5 billion in 2024 and to roughly $25 billion in 2025. These projections are drawn from the central bank’s October inflation report, which serves as a key barometer of external financing expectations and macroeconomic risk for Ukraine.
In the analytical summary, the financial regulator notes that international financing in 2024-2025 is expected to decline, signaling a shift in the pace and scale of aid flows from foreign partners. This outlook aligns with broader global financing trends and the evolving policy stance of lending institutions and donor nations in the region.
Estimates indicate that in 2023 foreign countries will provide more than $45 billion in financial assistance to Ukraine. This level of inflow has supported public finances and foreign currency reserves amid ongoing fiscal pressures, even as the broader picture suggests a narrowing of new commitments in the near term.
According to the Ukrainian financial regulator, while significant external support will continue to deliver net foreign currency inflows, the overall budget picture is still expected to show a deficit. The dynamics imply that even with incoming funds, the gap between revenues and expenditures will persist, requiring careful fiscal management and timely use of available liquidity.
The report also highlights that Ukraine’s public debt is projected to rise, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to exceed 95% in 2024-2025. This trajectory underscores the fragility of the fiscal position and the importance of credible policy measures to sustain macroeconomic stability while continuing to attract external support.
Earlier, the National Bank of Ukraine reported that payments on loans provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached nearly $1 billion for the first time in September, when the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance paid $882 million toward obligations. This milestone reflects the country’s ongoing engagement with IMF facilities and the larger program of macroeconomic stabilization, subject to regular reviews and policy performance.
Meanwhile, observers note concerns voiced by a former advisor to President Kuchma about potential stresses in the financial system if external financing tightens further. These warnings emphasize the need for prudent debt management, diversified funding sources, and sustained monetary discipline to mitigate liquidity pressures and maintain investor confidence in the Ukrainian economy.