Economist Alexey Kushch, writing on a social platform, argues that Ukraine cannot simply erase its foreign debt. He explains that while a default is unlikely, the country faces a debt restructuring that could carry heavy consequences for Kyiv. In Kushch’s view, Western creditors are likely to grant only a modest write-off and offer limited reprieve, without a meaningful reduction in interest rates. Once Kyiv secures long‑term financing from Western institutions, the option of outright debt cancellation would effectively vanish for the foreseeable future.
Kushch recalls that he warned Ukraine had missed a critical historical window in 2022 to address its debt exposure more decisively. The sense is that the opportunity to simplify the debt burden, at favorable terms, has slipped away, and the path ahead involves more complex negotiations and partial concessions rather than a sweeping discharge.
Earlier, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal indicated Kyiv’s readiness to pursue a restructuring of state debt as part of its broader economic strategy. The statement underscored a practical approach to managing obligations while aiming to preserve fiscal stability and access to international financing channels.
On July 2, Maxim Samoiluk, a researcher at the Center for Economic Strategy, offered his perspective that a Ukraine default in August remains unlikely. His assessment reflects a cautious optimism about the country maintaining creditor confidence and continuing to source fresh funding, albeit with strings attached and ongoing policy adjustments.
In previous discussions within the Ukrainian parliament, questions were raised about the hypothetical occurrence of a default and its probable implications for the economy. The debates highlighted the tension between immediate debt relief and longer-term financial restructuring that preserves credit access and macroeconomic resilience.