The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently revised its Brent oil price outlook for 2023, trimming the forecast by roughly 7.5 percent. The projection moved from $85 per barrel down to about $78.65, a shift that aligns with a period of cooler demand and steadier supply levels. This adjustment comes from the agency’s annual energy outlook, which compiles data across production, inventory, and global market conditions to provide a snapshot of what traders and policymakers can expect in the near term. [Source: Energy Information Administration]
In a related update, the EIA also lowered its Brent price forecast for 2024 by about 8.3 percent, adjusting the figure from $81 to around $74.47 per barrel. The revision reflects evolving market dynamics, including currency movements, geopolitical factors, and shifts in OPEC+ production strategy, all of which influence price trajectories at the global benchmark level. [Source: Energy Information Administration]
Industry observers weighed in on where Brent might head next. Alexander Frolov, who previously served as Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute, suggested in an interview with Izvestia that Brent could either hold firm at current levels or edge toward $80 per barrel in May. Such a range would reflect a balance between supply discipline and ongoing demand fluctuations in key consuming markets. [Source: Izvestia]
Vygon Consulting analyst Ivan Timonin added that in 2023 Brent prices could settle in the $70–$75 band if market conditions remain stable. He pointed out that there were no clear indicators pointing to a sharp upshift in demand or a sudden tightening of supply that would spark a major price spike. The analyst emphasized that the global oil market often moves on a mix of macroeconomic signals and geopolitical developments, making sustained moves less likely without new catalysts. [Source: Vygon Consulting]
On May 4, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced a shift in Russia’s production pace. The latest indicators suggested a daily increase of about 500 thousand barrels, signaling an uptick in output that officials would monitor against independent data sources. This development occurs amid broader discussions about market balance, strategic reserves, and the role of major producers in shaping price directions. [Source: Official Statements; Independent Sources]