Economists at the International Monetary Fund have modeled a scenario where the world could split into two distinct trading blocs. This analysis, reported by RIA News, envisions a future with a bloc led by the United States and the European Union and a second bloc anchored by China and Russia. The model assumes no significant trade between these two blocs, and it suggests that the split would not be driven only by the war in Ukraine.
Experts note that in recent years, trade limits in key sectors such as commodities and semiconductors—areas vital to national security and strategic competitiveness—have been increasingly weighed against the overall gains from deep global economic integration. The IMF analysis also points to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which intensified barriers in the medical products and food supply chains.
Russian economists highlight the difficulty of predicting which bloc would derive greater benefits from a split. The Russia–China axis covers substantial energy resources and rare earth reserves, and many Eurasian nations participate in this bloc. They caution that nuclear energy could encounter new challenges due to uranium supply constraints within that framework. [Source: IMF scenario briefing]
Conversely, the Sino–Russian alliance might face shortages of critical inputs such as cobalt, nickel, copper, palm oil, soybeans, printed circuit boards, and advanced microcircuits predominantly produced in the Atlantic bloc, which includes the United States and Europe. [Context: commodity and tech supply dynamics]
A separate historical note mentions that a former deputy chief at the U.S. Department of Energy acknowledged a degree of dependence on Russian uranium. [Historical reference: energy policy discussions]
A remark attributed to a former official at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs speculated about security implications, invoking a controversial comparison to water drawn from a Fukushima-1 reactor. This remark serves to illustrate the volatility and sensitivity surrounding energy and nuclear topics in global geopolitics. [Attribution: policy discourse]