The Russian Energy Ministry Signals Higher Oil Refinery Volumes in 2023
According to the head of Russia’s Energy Ministry, Nikolai Shulginov, forecasts indicate a rise in oil refining volumes for 2023. The minister reiterated this outlook in statements that were transmitted by media outlets, including TASS, underscoring a trend that began at the start of the year and has continued through the present period. The ministry’s assessment highlights a steady month-by-month growth in refining activity, rather than a sharp acceleration, with the trend supported by ongoing domestic demand and policy measures that shape supply and export dynamics.
Shulginov noted that the expansion in oil processing rates has remained resilient, with the growth targets for refining indicators staying intact. The forecast does not show a pronounced decline, even in the face of prior decisions aimed at limiting fuel exports. This balance suggests that refining capacity is maintaining forward momentum while export restrictions act as a stabilizing force for the domestic market. The ministry’s communication points to a controlled environment where refining operations adapt to evolving market conditions without eroding overall throughput.
Amid the policy discourse, the minister was also asked about the potential for further adjustments to Russia’s gasoline export ban. He indicated that lifting the prohibition entirely would not be feasible at this juncture, signaling that export controls will likely remain in place to secure domestic fuel supply and price stability. The stance reflects a cautious approach to balancing international trade considerations with internal market needs, a theme consistent with the government’s broader energy policy approach.
On 6 October, the Russian government approved additional steps aimed at stabilizing the domestic fuel market. The measures include higher compulsory sales standards for AI-95 gasoline on the exchange market, increasing from 13% to 15%. Diesel fuel requirements were raised from 9.5% to 12.5%. These adjustments are designed to ensure a steady distribution of fuel within the country and to reduce volatility in retail prices by guiding supply through regulated channels. The policy move aligns with efforts to maintain supply discipline while supporting refineries and distributors in navigating changing demand patterns.
Previously, the Ministry of Energy had offered commentary on price movements at gas stations, highlighting how policy instruments can influence retail pricing and consumer access. The ongoing dialogue between the ministry, industry stakeholders, and market participants reflects a coordinated effort to manage the energy sector’s complexities in a dynamic economic environment. The ultimate objective remains to sustain reliable fuel availability for Russian consumers while preserving the integrity of the country’s refining sector. Attribution: Source statements reported by TASS and official government releases.