The ruble’s moves after the holidays point to a familiar trading pattern
Recent exchange rate shifts have been a normal part of post-holiday trading, with the local currency showing strength against the dollar. Alpha Capital Analyst Alexander Dzhioev notes that the ruble could rise by roughly 65 to 70 rubles per dollar in the current environment, a range that has long persisted in market discussions. He explains that the ruble returning toward the upper end of this band aligns with common balance of payments dynamics and the overall flow of goods and capital across borders.
Dzhioev points out that when export and import activity balances are considered, the ruble tends to hover within this familiar corridor. The implication is that the value of the currency is closely tied to the scale of international transactions and the flow of funds between home and abroad. In this view, the market’s reaction to holiday-related trading is a typical feature rather than a surprise, reflecting ongoing adjustments as traders recalibrate their positions after a quieter period.
Volatility in the exchange rate has always been part of the post-holiday trading landscape. Movements can be more pronounced at the start of a new cycle as investors reassess risk, liquidity, and central bank policy signals. The ebb and flow in such moments is often driven by shifts in expectations for future policy, commodity prices, and global risk sentiment. This pattern of renewed activity helps explain why the ruble can move more decisively in early trading sessions following holidays.
Yevgeny Mironyuk, a stockbroker with the financial holding company BCS Mir Investments, offered a similar view. He suggested that the ruble might strengthen against the dollar ahead of new foreign exchange purchases aligned with the central bank budget rule. According to Mironyuk, at the start of 2023 the ruble could experience more pronounced fluctuations than those seen in the August to November period of the prior year. This perspective underscores the role of policy frameworks and annual budgeting processes in shaping near-term currency dynamics.
Together these assessments highlight a common theme: the ruble tends to settle into a predictable range when external trade and internal demand remain balanced, while short-term volatility is often linked to seasonal factors and policy expectations. Market participants watching the ruble should consider both the structural drivers, such as export volumes and import needs, and the timing of central bank actions as they form expectations for the weeks ahead. While the exact path of the exchange rate may bend, the broader frame remains anchored to known levels and the ongoing rhythm of international commerce.