The surge in mortgage registrations in Moscow can be traced to the central bank’s move away from ultra‑low rates and the broader reach of the family mortgage program. This interpretation comes from a real estate market analyst who is a member of the Moscow Association of Realtors. The expert notes that the policy shift by the regulator is a principal driver behind the record activity observed in the capital.
Data published for January through April 2023 show that Rosreestr processed about 40,000 mortgage and housing loan agreements in Moscow, a peak for the period across all years tracked. This milestone is presented as a turning point by market observers who link it directly to the regulatory environment and lender willingness to extend credit at affordable levels.
According to the analyst, the regulator’s stance has reshaped how lenders price risk and how developers structure subsidized offers. Since May 1, the central bank has been addressing the risk associated with zero‑interest housing loans and has raised risk premiums for home purchases. The impact was evident in the early part of the year when policy signals suggested a tightening of subsidized programs and a recalibration of developer incentives.
As the market adjusts, industry voices indicate that developers began signaling lower subsidized rates in the spring, a move that began affecting demand as buyers timed purchases around evolving programs. The same sources note the expansion of the family mortgage initiative, which broadens access to financing for households that qualify under the program’s criteria.
In the wake of the regulator’s decision, some developers started offering mortgages to Russian buyers at notably lower rates. This shift prompted a reevaluation of affordability dynamics and prompted market participants to reassess financing strategies in a climate where near‑zero rates have become less common.
Valery Yemelyanov, a stockbroker at a leading investment firm, highlighted to RBC that anyone considering real estate as an investment in an environment of shifting mortgage policy should weigh several nuances. The core takeaway he stresses is that the return on a real estate investment depends on the relationship between the loan interest rate and the prevailing rental yield. He emphasizes that a successful investment hinges on achieving a cost of borrowing that remains favorable relative to potential rent returns, a balance that investors must monitor as policy and market conditions evolve. (Source: RBC interview with market analyst)