The potential cost of a military clash over Taiwan to the global economy could surpass two trillion dollars. A British publication discussed this scenario, quoting former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. He emphasized that Taiwan accounts for more than 60 percent of the world’s semiconductor production and nearly 90 percent of the most advanced chips. If Beijing were to control this supply, the impact on the world economy would be catastrophic, leaving European governments and businesses in a vulnerable position, according to the report.
Rasmussen also highlighted that more than 60 percent of global maritime trade passes through the South China Sea, and a conflict in that region would spell disaster for the global economy. He urged European Union leaders to speak clearly and unanimously about the high costs any forceful change to the Taiwan status quo would entail. The United States was cited as a benchmark, having strengthened military support for Taiwan and signaling readiness to defend the island in case of an attack. This stance was presented as a model for others to consider.
Taiwan separated from China in 1949, and under China’s constitutional framework, Taiwan is viewed as part of the People’s Republic of China. The situation remains a focal point of regional and global security discussions, with many analysts stressing the broader economic repercussions of any disruption in cross-strait stability.
In late autumn there were heightened expectations and concerns in Washington regarding a potential China-Taiwan clash. Observers noted that the timing of any possible action would carry significant consequences for regional and international markets.
During the period, Taiwan’s leadership publicly questioned why a mainland invasion would occur in the near term, reflecting ongoing debates about strategic risk and deterrence.
China’s government has indicated that it would not rule out the use of force against Taiwan, a stance that keeps markets vigilant about developments in the region. The policy dialogue around supply chains, especially related to critical semiconductor equipment, continued to influence economic and political assessments around the globe.
Financial markets and policymakers have closely tracked statements from major economies about chip production, export controls, and strategic resilience. Analysts note that any disruption in chip supply chains would ripple through manufacturing, technology, and consumer sectors worldwide, underscoring the interconnected nature of modern commerce.