Structural Liquidity in Russian Banks: A 2023 Overview and Projections
The Central Bank of Russia has projected a structural liquidity surplus for banks in 2023 amounting to roughly 2.8 to 3.4 trillion rubles. The February 2023 monetary policy report outlines these expectations and notes a slight shift in excess liquidity over the year. This forecast reflects how banks are holding more funds in correspondent accounts than are necessary to reconcile customer activity and satisfy reserve requirements.
In the year 2022 the structural liquidity surplus reached 2.8 trillion rubles. By January 2023 the figure had risen to about 3.2 trillion rubles, indicating a continued high level of excess liquidity in the banking system as the year began. The regulator points to policy measures and fiscal operations as key drivers behind future liquidity dynamics.
As the Ministry of Finance resumes operations under the fiscal rule, the sale of yuan and the investment of funds from the National Welfare Fund are expected to inject liquidity into banks. These moves are anticipated to support banks as they navigate the evolving financial landscape in 2023.
Another market factor cited by the Central Bank is an expected growth in cash in circulation by 0.6 to 0.8 trillion rubles by year end. In 2022 this measure stood at 14.6 trillion rubles, a benchmark used to gauge liquidity pressure and consumer cash demand in the broader economy.
The regulator also considered the impact of higher reserve requirements, scheduled for implementation on March 1 and June 1 this year. These increases are projected to raise the average level of required reserves held in correspondent accounts by approximately 1.0 to 0.9 trillion rubles relative to January levels. When combined with the projected money supply growth, banks’ correspondent account balances are anticipated to rise by around 1.4 to 1.6 trillion rubles by year-end compared with January 1 this year.
The Central Bank concluded that excess liquidity in 2023 would change only slightly, reflecting a balance between rising reserves, policy measures, and ongoing liquidity inflows. Market participants have been tracking these developments as they shape interbank funding conditions and the availability of funds for lending and investment across the banking sector.
Earlier reporting noted that the Russian banking system first saw a structural liquidity surplus in April 2022, reaching 280.4 billion rubles for the first time since February of the previous year. In late February 2022, the surplus reduced to 113.1 billion rubles, and in the following weeks the system experienced a structural deficit before stabilizing. By September 14, 2022, the structural liquidity surplus had climbed to roughly 3.66 trillion rubles, a record high not seen since August 2021. These movements illustrate the volatility and resilience of the liquidity framework within the Russian financial sector during recent years, and they provide a reference point for interpreting current and forward-looking forecasts.