Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov warned that the upcoming three-year budget cycle would be the most challenging of his career. He noted that sanctions and restrictions have revealed the absence of certain critical technologies within the country, a reality he discussed in a film commemorating the ministry’s 220th anniversary.
Siluanov said that the cost of import substitution would be incorporated into the budget planning for the next three years. He emphasized that rebuilding competencies once sourced abroad is a long-term effort, but technological leadership cannot be achieved without sustained funding. He added that this funding would be sought both in the current year and in the budget formulation process for the coming period.
Restrictions on oil and gas exports will also shape the budget. He pointed out that it is essential to consider not only energy prices but also potential shifts in export volumes when evaluating the fiscal outlook amid constraints on supply.
The level of external resources influences production and, in turn, the country’s budgetary income. In the updated budget framework, authorities intend to incorporate this factor to shield the economy from volume-related risks.
The administration has already outlined how it plans to tune the draft budget before it reaches the State Duma. The aim is to strike a balance between directing resources toward social priorities and avoiding financial market imbalances, a middle path that Siluanov described as particularly difficult to achieve.
Meeting with the President
Future discussions on economic issues are slated to take place next week, with the Kremlin confirming that a date is to be set. The talks will also cover the preparation of the federal budget draft, underscoring the ongoing focus on macroeconomic stability and social objectives.
State press secretary Dmitry Peskov indicated that the budget process has begun and that socio-economic development remains central to policy planning.
When asked about the draft’s readiness, Peskov affirmed that work is progressing, suggesting confidence in the ongoing process.
Budget Outlook and Challenges
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, speaking on the ministry’s anniversary, acknowledged that the three-year budget will be demanding. He stressed that the process will be conducted with professional rigor and that the government will identify the necessary solutions to meet the state’s primary tasks.
Mishustin expressed optimism about the country’s ability to recover from the crisis, while noting that sanctions and attempts by unfriendly nations to disrupt exports, imports, and logistical corridors pose significant budgeting challenges. He highlighted that debates over how to allocate budgetary funds are persistent, with social sectors typically receiving strong emphasis in these discussions.
Accelerated Adaptation and Growth Scenarios
According to economic forecast reports, should an accelerated adaptation path be pursued, the economy could surpass its 2021 level by a notable margin by 2030. The projection envisions investment growth accelerating substantially and real incomes rising over the same period, supported by a new socio-economic program intended to drive these gains.
Analysts also project a growth trajectory that places GDP expansion in the range of mid- to high-single digits over the medium term, with domestic demand and investment playing pivotal roles. The outlook envisions a gradual return to positive momentum, with the economy relying more on internal drivers while responding to external constraints.