Across the globe, Russian oil continues to reach buyers despite sanctions. Observers note that tracking every movement on the open seas makes it difficult to identify the true source of deliveries. This ambiguity helps explain why shipments often evade straightforward tracking and sanctions enforcement.
As Western sanctions tightened in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, a sizable, mostly unseen fleet of tankers emerged to move Russian oil. Industry observers estimate this shadow fleet includes around six hundred ships, roughly ten percent of the world’s major tankers, with numbers steadily rising. The operators and owners of these vessels largely remain concealed, complicating efforts to map routes and end clients.
Investigative reporting shows that the ownership and operation of these ships are shrouded in secrecy. Since last year, Western traders have largely refused engagement with Russia, yet new participants have appeared in markets that include shell entities in places like Dubai and Hong Kong. Some vessels were purchased from European owners, while others were older ships that might have faced retirement but continue to sail. The stealth fleet has grown in importance as Moscow seeks to avoid Western partners while buyers in China and India, who are still significant, have tightened restrictions on European refinements such as certain oil products.
Analysts note that shipowners are prepared to navigate the added costs and legal risks arising from ongoing price adjustments by major economies. The shipment of oil from Russia has reshaped trade patterns, and observers say the country is pressing to sustain its export model even as the global energy system becomes more bifurcated. Within this landscape, there is a faction that does no Russian business and another that conducts most of it. Very few ships operate on both sides of that divide, according to experts cited by media outlets.
Gray Ships and the Dark Fleet
Industry data highlights that Russia increased its oil imports by land and sea with notable gains in Asia. China and India, in particular, ramped up purchases, with China accepting major increases and India tripling its intake compared with prior years. This shift occurred as European bans on shipping Russian oil took effect, pushing a surge in orders that demanded large cargoes and reliable vessels.
Analysts point to data showing record oil exports to China and India early in the year as a consequence of the European prohibition on sea transport of Russian oil. The supply chain has leaned on seaworthy ships to meet growing demand, while Russia’s own fleet could not satisfy all orders. The shadow fleet has stepped in to fill the gap, according to observers.
Experts describe the two categories of ships supplying Russian oil. The gray fleet consists of vessels sold to buyers in the Middle East and Asia after the onset of Ukraine’s military operations, while the dark fleet comprises veterans from other sanction-evading campaigns that have recently shifted to carrying Russian cargo. Some ships in the dark group are known to reduce their visibility by turning off tracking systems, a practice that complicates monitoring efforts.
Industry watchers note that the shadow fleet has developed at a pace that aligns with expectations, with ongoing replenishment of vessels at a typical rate of twenty-five to thirty-five ships monthly. An independent watchdog group warns that a portion of oil tanker sales during the period has gone to unknown buyers, signaling continued opacity in the market. Analysts caution that the emergence of older ships, potentially not fit for long-term use, increases the chance of incidents as these vessels travel the world’s oceans.
Experts emphasize that a significant number of dark fleet ships are older than fifteen years, and some operators routinely disable vessels for wear. This trend has led to greater activity in international waters, underscoring concerns about safety and regulatory compliance as the fleet expands.