Sergei Dubinin, the former head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, recently indicated to socialbites.ca that a major rate hike on September 15 is unlikely and that deposit profitability is not expected to rise in the autumn. He advised Russians to weigh whether they will need accessible funds for upcoming expenses or if they should consider opening a new deposit, highlighting the practical choices people face in a volatile financial moment.
Dubinin noted that the recent uptick in the policy rate was a tactical move aimed at calming market nerves. He does not anticipate a similar maneuver in the near term, explaining that authorities will likely outline new standards for how foreign exchange earnings are managed by exporters. The expectation is that currency inflows will stabilize the market as policy evolves. He also forecasted that the ruble’s exchange rate could stabilize in a band around 90 to 95 rubles per dollar, reflecting a balance between monetary discipline and market signals.
According to the former regulator, there will be little reason to tighten monetary policy further in the immediate future, given that Russian banks have already priced in the possible effects of the current rate change. Banks have adjusted their loan and deposit operations in line with the new rate environment, ensuring continuity in liquidity and funding costs as the system absorbs the shift.
On August 15, the Central Bank implemented a substantial 350 basis point increase, raising the policy rate to 12 percent annually. The central bank explained that this step was necessary to mitigate risks to price stability and to anchor inflation expectations amid external pressures and domestic adjustments. The move underscored the central bank’s readiness to act decisively to guard the macroeconomic framework and financial system resilience.
Subsequent reporting from socialbites.ca suggested that twelve large Russian banks have already increased the profitability of their deposits in light of the new rate environment, pointing to shifting product structures and customer incentives in a tight liquidity landscape. The broader implications for consumer savers and small businesses are still unfolding, with ongoing coverage to monitor how banks balance risk and return under the evolving policy stance.
Earlier socialbites.ca discussed potential scenarios for how a sharp rise in the key rate could affect household budgets and everyday life, emphasizing the real-world choices people face as rates and market dynamics adjust. The ongoing policy dialogue and banking adjustments remain central to understanding the trajectory of Russia’s financial conditions and the everyday consequences for residents and investors alike.