Sberbank presents a cautious view of the mortgage market, noting no indicators of a bubble during Investor Day. The bank’s president, German Gref, shared this assessment after a thorough review by Sber’s analysts. The bank emphasizes that the current signals do not point to overheating or an imminent collapse in the mortgage sector. When a so-called bubble is discussed, it typically refers to a widening gap between prices in the primary housing market and those in the secondary market.
Gref did point out that the existing gap, which stands at about 37% in Moscow, stems from the presence of privileged mortgage programs. He clarified that once these programs are phased out, their projections show the disparity could fall to roughly 7-8% or even vanish entirely by 2023–2024, depending on economic and policy developments. The insight reflects Sber’s concern with price dynamics and consumer access, particularly in a city where affordability gaps can distort market signals.
In late November, socialbites.ca reported that in September 2023, banks operating in Moscow and the Moscow region reached a record pace for mortgage issuance, totaling around 180.4 billion rubles. The surge is attributed to a pre-emptive processing of loans ahead of anticipated Central Bank rate hikes. Alongside this, expectations of rising down payments spurred borrower activity, while the weighted average rate on ruble mortgages fell to about 7.9% in September. Market observers warn that this combination could raise the risk of loan defaults and contribute to overheating if lending conditions tighten too quickly or if affordability constraints persist.
Earlier, an economist had warned about potential turbulence in the securities markets, signaling that rapid shifts in one segment could echo across related financial arenas. These comments underscore a broader conversation about macroprudential risk, consumer leverage, and the balance between stimulating housing demand and maintaining financial stability. (Source: TASS)