Taras Skvortsov, a senior executive at Sberbank, explains that Russia has not faced a prolonged period of high interest rates, and this context underpins the bank’s cautious but optimistic outlook for 2024. The financial landscape, according to him, has not seen a sustained tightening that could derail growth, which gives Sberbank room to anticipate a softer yet steady year ahead.
Over the past four months, the market has expanded by about 5 percent. With this momentum, Sberbank maintains a forecast of 12 to 15 percent growth for the year, a range it regards as solid given current lending activity and macroeconomic signals. Skvortsov notes that the pace of expansion inherently depends on the broader economic environment and policy choices going forward.
He also indicated that there is a possibility the bank’s figures could be revised upward as new data becomes available. This openness reflects a dynamic assessment process that responds to evolving conditions in credit markets and consumer demand.
In Skvortsov’s view, the lending landscape is currently shaped by vigorous loan issuance across the banking sector. The continued willingness of banks to extend credit is framed as a key driver of domestic economic growth, supporting household and business activity in the near term.
Regarding retail lending, the forecast remains within a 9 to 11 percent growth band for the year. This projection anticipates steady consumer borrowing alongside the stabilization of borrowers’ default risk and the influence of government programs on overall lending dynamics.
Skvortsov also notes that policy decisions will play a critical role in shaping the trajectory of credit expansion. The extension or modification of government mortgage programs, coupled with regulatory actions, could alter the affordability and accessibility of financing for households and developers, thereby affecting growth patterns.
A potential tightening in consumer credit and other lending categories is acknowledged as a factor that could restrain expansion. This possibility underscores the sensitivity of growth to policy measures and risk management practices across the financial sector.
Looking ahead, the forecast is described as conservative, reflecting prudent assumptions about future conditions. Skvortsov emphasizes that the bank will re-evaluate its projections as new information becomes available before the release of upcoming financial statements, ensuring that the outlook remains aligned with actual market developments.