Russia may restart electricity deliveries to EU markets, including Finland and the Baltic states. According to Kommersant, which cites data from the System Operator responsible for overseeing the country’s power grid, Moscow’s export pattern remains shaped by bilateral agreements and the operating rules of the Russian energy sector. The information hinges on figures provided by Inter RAO, the monopoly that handles much of Russia’s electricity exports, offering a glimpse into what could happen if supply lines reopen. This backdrop matters for EU energy planners who have watched years of evolving dispatch and export policies unfold across the region.
Estimates suggest that Finland could receive as much as four billion kilowatt-hours in 2023. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia might together see about 2.4 billion kilowatt-hours. When added to Finland, the total could reach roughly 6.4 billion kilowatt-hours for the year, a volume that would represent nearly half of Russia’s electricity sales in 2023. These projections reflect the scale of cross-border flows that Russia has historically maintained with northern and eastern European partners, underscoring how dependent some EU economies have been on imports of Russian power during calmer periods of the energy market. This reliance has shaped grid reliability planning, regional interconnections, and the economics of wholesale electricity in the Baltic and Nordic regions.
Inter RAO has stated to Kommersant that renewing supplies to Finland and the Baltic states in the medium term remains uncertain. The Baltic region and Finland have long stood out as the most significant destinations for Russian electricity exports. In 2021, Inter RAO delivered 12.9 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for about sixty percent of all electrical supply from the Russian Federation. For early 2022, estimates compiled by Kommersant indicate that Russia supplied around five billion kilowatt-hours to EU customers from January through May, highlighting the sharp shifts that can occur in cross-border energy trade during tense political periods. Analysts interviewed by Kommersant temper their expectations, expressing doubt about a rapid resumption of flows. They point to the broader political and regulatory environment in Europe, which has remained cautious about reinstating large-volume imports of Russian electricity, regardless of surface-level market signals.
The broader context for these discussions includes the sanctions regime that began in early 2022. After the spring move to cut off electricity supplies to EU countries, the energy landscape in Europe has undergone a sustained recalibration. Networks across the Nordic-Baltic region have prioritized diversification, new interconnections, and alternative supply routes to reduce exposure to single-country dependencies. Industry observers note that any future reintroduction of imports would hinge on a complex mix of political approvals, market conditions, and the readiness of regional grids to absorb new power flows without jeopardizing reliability or price stability. In this light, the current chatter about potential re-entry of Russian electricity remains speculative and contingent on a broad alignment of policy signals from European authorities and energy market participants. The episode illustrates how quickly strategic energy relationships can evolve in response to sanctions, regulatory changes, and the ongoing realignment of the European energy system.
Citations: Kommersant, System Operator, Inter RAO.