In October, Russian households showed a renewed preference for saving, reaching the highest level observed since March. This trend is highlighted in the Central Bank analysis titled Analysis of trends in the retail credit segment based on credit history bureau data. The shift toward saving reflects a cautious stance amid persistent economic uncertainty, with households prioritizing precaution over discretionary spending. According to the Central Bank, the share of savers rose to 55.3 percent in October, up from 53.2 percent in September. This uptick occurs in an environment where inflation expectations remain elevated, though trending lower, at 11.2 percent in October compared with 11.7 percent in September. The Bank notes that the growing saving tendency signals a conservative consumption pattern as people navigate concerns about the evolution of the economy and the potential impact on personal finances. The overarching message from the Central Bank is that cautious spending behavior is a defensive response to uncertainty about the near-term economic outlook, rather than a sign of strong income growth or immediate financial resilience. [Source: Central Bank]
The Central Bank projects inflation to stay within a corridor of 7 to 7.5 percent by the end of 2023. For 2024, the forecast envisions a reduction to a range around 4 to 4.5 percent, with a stabilization near 4 percent thereafter. In its communications, the regulator emphasizes that monetary policy is geared toward anchoring inflation at approximately 4 percent in the medium term, which would support more predictable price movements and greater financial planning certainty for households and businesses alike. The forecast reflects the Bank’s intent to guide inflation expectations toward a sustainable path while monitoring external and domestic factors that can influence price dynamics. [Source: Central Bank]
In a recent summary, the Central Bank reiterated that monetary policy aims to stabilize inflation around the 4 percent target over the medium term, signaling a priority on price stability as a foundation for economic confidence. This stance is paired with ongoing vigilance over inflation risks and the forces that shape consumer prices, including supply chain pressures and energy costs. The central message is that steadier inflation supports prudent borrowing, saving, and long-range financial planning for households, families, and small enterprises. [Source: Central Bank]
The Bank also noted that last week guidance was provided to parents on how to build a financial cushion for a child. Practical recommendations focus on teaching budgeting basics, setting aside an emergency fund, and the importance of early financial literacy as a tool for future security. The guidance aligns with broader financial inclusion efforts and aims to equip families with strategies to weather economic volatility, save consistently, and cultivate responsible money management from a young age. [Source: Central Bank]
Earlier communications from the Central Bank highlighted the level of borrowing activity, detailing the number of Russians who took credit over the last six months. The data illustrate how households balance the need for liquidity with the risks of over-leveraging in uncertain times. This snapshot helps policymakers assess credit demand, the availability of credit products, and the overall health of household balance sheets. [Source: Central Bank]