Prices for new properties in Russia are expected to ease over the next two to three years. This view comes from Ildar Khusainov, the chief executive of the real estate company Etazhi, who shared his perspective during a session on the Movement forum, as reported by RIA News.
Currently, activity in the housing market appears stagnant. Data show that the average cost of primary real estate has barely shifted in recent times. Specifically, the price per square meter moved from 117.5 thousand rubles to roughly 119.7 thousand rubles, indicating a slow, stabilized market instead of rapid growth.
Analysts point out that Russia is dealing with relatively high housing prices. This environment is pushing the market toward a potential peak in price increases. As a result, developers are advised to factor in the possibility of price declines when crafting their long‑term strategies and project finance plans.
From the standpoint of market structure, there is a clear shift in demand away from new builds toward secondary housing and suburban options. The share of transactions involving new housing has declined over time, underscoring a broader customer preference for established stock or more distant locations. For instance, the proportion of deals in March last year stood at 30.2 percent, but by May 2023 it had fallen to 23.2 percent. This trend suggests buyers are reorienting their portfolios and risk assessments in response to housing affordability and financing conditions.
Industry researchers at the real estate indicators center have described the new‑home market in Russia as increasingly dependent on continual subsidies. The center notes that government support through mortgage subsidies has inflated the price bubble, making home ownership less accessible for many citizens. In their view, the policy of sustaining demand through subsidies may be counterproductive over time and could warrant reconsideration to ensure a healthier, more balanced market structure.
Overall, experts emphasize prudence for developers and lenders as the market recalibrates. With price resilience showing signs of softening and demand diverging from new construction, stakeholders are urged to align pricing, product mix, and financing terms with evolving buyer preferences. The conversation continues to center on balancing market incentives with real affordability, aiming to stabilize housing access while avoiding excessive price escalation in a highly dynamic economic environment.