The current consensus on Russia’s policy path points to no easing before mid-2025, according to Taras Skvortsov, Senior Vice President at Sberbank. In remarks collected by RBC, he explained that the bank expects the first reduction of the key interest rate to occur in the second quarter of next year. This stance places a pause on any near-term rate relief and aligns with the team’s view on inflation and macroeconomic stability for the period ahead.
Skvortsov emphasized that a rate cut is not on the table for the remainder of the current year. His calculations indicate that the earliest window for easing will be in Q2 2025, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary stimulus given evolving inflation dynamics and credit conditions. The assessment suggests that policymakers may prefer to observe how the economy absorbs tighter conditions before any adjustment in policy settings.
While a reduction is anticipated in mid-2025, the senior executive did not rule out the possibility of additional policy tightening in the near term. He highlighted that the central bank may consider a scenario where the key rate rises to 20 percent, pointing to recent communications from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation that signal openness to such a path under certain circumstances.
In his view, there is a recognized risk that the key rate could reach as high as 20 percent if inflationary pressures persist and the financial conditions tighten further. The central bank has signaled readiness to evaluate this possibility, depending on evolving data and risk assessments. This margin for policy flexibility is aligned with a cautious stance toward inflation and financial stability for households and businesses alike.
During recent discussions at the central bank, the prospect of a 20 percent rate was weighed against long-run inflation trends and the impact of temporary factors on credit conditions. Some participants argued in favor of an 18 percent peak, considering the shorter-term drivers of inflation and the transitory nature of certain external factors. The deliberations reflect a careful balancing act between anchoring inflation expectations and preserving credit flow to the economy.
Amid these mixed signals, analysts are watching how deposit rates will move in the near term. The trajectory for household savings and loan costs remains a key channel through which monetary policy will influence economic activity. Observers in Canada and the United States are paying close attention to these developments, given how global markets often price in policy shifts from major emerging economies and the potential spillovers to exchange rates and capital flows.