The Russian housing market is being watched closely as experts forecast tighter supply and sustained demand over the coming decade. This trend, discussed under the banner Russia is Calling!, has generated detailed commentary in industry forums, with finance leaders weighing future risks and opportunities for developers, lenders, and buyers alike. One prominent voice is Sergei Staroverov, Deputy General Director of Economics and Finance at Setl Group, who shared his assessment with RBC about how the market may behave in the medium term.
Staroverov notes that the development sector operates under significant regulatory oversight, which can help mitigate risk for investors, including those holding bonds. In his view, the regulatory framework reduces exposure and provides a more predictable backdrop for capital deployment, a point he emphasizes when discussing the unique dynamics of the Russian market compared with other regions. This perspective aligns with the broader goal of maintaining investor confidence even as conditions evolve.
Looking ahead, the expert argues that real estate prices are expected to trend upward over the long horizon. In such a scenario, the housing segment remains a compelling target for investors seeking durable returns, given the sector’s historically persistent demand and limited supply in key urban and peri-urban areas. Staroverov highlights that, despite fluctuations, the fundamental appeal of housing endures because people continually require shelter, and urban growth sustains demand over time.
In his assessment, housing is projected to stay in demand and the market is likely to remain scarce in the next decade. This scarcity is tied to factors such as limited land availability in dense metropolitan zones, infrastructure constraints, and a gradual tightening of new construction permits in some regions. Such conditions can support price stability and gradual appreciation, even when macroeconomic variables shift. The takeaway for market participants is clear: supply-demand dynamics point toward continued interest from both domestic and institutional buyers.
Staroverov also weighs the role of preferential mortgage programs, arguing that they provide essential support across the market chain. He contends that such programs help banks, developers, and homebuyers by lowering barriers to entry and enabling ongoing project financing. The implication is that withdrawing these incentives could have a ripple effect, potentially slowing activity across multiple segments of the market while still allowing for overall growth in housing demand.
Nevertheless, there is a counterbalance to consider. The development market could face a downturn if interest rates rise or if support measures through concessional loans are scaled back earlier than anticipated. Setl Group’s internal stress tests suggest that a shift in financing conditions could dampen sales momentum, as a large share of transactions has historically relied on subsidized credit. In the current forecast, the proportion of sales tied to concessional financing is substantial, underscoring how sensitive the market is to financing terms.
In parallel analyses, analysts from CIAN.Analytics have noted that the Ministry of Finance has tightened prerequisites for concessional mortgages. The resulting adjustments may reduce the pool of potential buyers by a sizable margin, with estimates ranging from a quarter to nearly one-third of the usual buyer base. This forecast underscores the need for buyers and lenders to adapt quickly to changing rules, reaffirming the importance of prudent financial planning and flexible product offerings in the housing sector.
These evolving policy and market conditions come amid reports of support programs for certain buyer segments, including educators. In some regions such as Vologda, initiatives aimed at assisting young teachers in securing down payments on homes illustrate how targeted measures can help sustain demand in specific demographics. While such programs provide meaningful assistance to participants, they also reflect the broader policy aim of stabilizing the housing market by enabling more families to enter the property market despite shifting financial conditions.