If Russian authorities decide to discontinue the preferential mortgage program after July 1, 2024, a substantial portion of demand for mortgages could vanish. This view was voiced by Valery Emelyanov, a stock market expert with BCS World of Investments, in an interview with socialbites.ca. He stressed that such a scenario remains unlikely, but it would have noticeable consequences for the housing market.
At current price levels, only a small segment of the population can purchase apartments in new developments using only their own funds. This reality implies that a large share, roughly 60-80 percent, of housing sales in the market are financed through credit. Emelyanov highlighted that the affordability gap pushes many buyers toward loan-financed purchases rather than cash purchases, shaping overall demand dynamics in the housing sector.
According to the expert, the secondary housing market remains the primary arena for mortgage activity. This market involves buyers swapping apartments, often with additional payments or credits, which sustains demand regardless of changes to concessional lending programs. He noted that there is always a secondary market for any level of rate and contribution because moving from a one-room to a two-room apartment typically triggers selling the initial property, securing a loan or borrowing from relatives, and covering the extra costs. Mortgages thus act as a significant driver of sales but are not the sole mechanism people rely on to resolve housing needs.
Emelyanov predicted that even without concessional mortgage options, people would continue to purchase second-hand housing rather than new builds from developers. Those unable to access the secondary market would increasingly resort to renting or living with relatives as an alternative housing solution, he argued, underscoring the resilience of the rental sector and informal arrangements in the housing landscape.
In December, officials from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation proposed raising the down payment on concessional mortgages again—from 20 percent to 30 percent. Earlier, government decisions had already increased this rate from 15 percent to 20 percent in September. The potential tightening of down payment requirements could alter the affordability equation for many would-be buyers, affecting their ability to enter the market and influencing overall demand patterns. The discussion around these changes reflects ongoing governmental attempts to recalibrate housing finance and manage credit risk while balancing social and market considerations.
Looking ahead, industry observers are weighing how shifts in mortgage policy will ripple through rental markets, property turnover, and consumer financing. The housing market is frequently driven by a mix of factors: income dynamics, credit accessibility, regional price disparities, and the availability of alternative housing options. Even with tighter conditions on concessional loans, a sizable portion of buyers may still pursue ownership through other channels or adjust by leasing, cohabitation, or leveraging family support. The evolving policy environment thus remains a key variable in forecasting prices, mortgage volumes, and the pace of housing market activity in Russia.
What awaits the rental housing market in Russia in the near term remains a topic of discussion among experts, with expectations that demand will adapt in response to policy changes, affordability pressures, and shifting consumer behavior. The interplay between primary and secondary markets, along with the role of family-based financing and informal arrangements, will continue to shape housing outcomes for households across different income levels. As policy makers reassess lending conditions, observers will watch closely how these dynamics influence access to housing, ownership rates, and the balance between renting and buying over the coming months.