The central bank leadership in Russia has highlighted a sharp shift in the housing market over the last three years. In recent remarks, the governor noted that the price tag on newly built homes has risen by about 90 percent on average, signaling a substantial swing in construction costs and market expectations. This trend is part of a broader economic landscape where consumer financing is expanding rapidly, and it has become a touchstone for discussions about affordability and housing policy in the country.
On the lending side, there is a clear surge in debt taken on by households, with mortgage loans growing at a brisk pace. The cumulative effect of this lending activity has been a robust increase in the mortgage portfolio, rising by roughly one third within a year. Such growth reflects strong demand for home ownership and the willingness of banks and lenders to extend credit, even as other parts of the economy face a tighter environment.
Meanwhile, wage growth in the same period has lagged behind the acceleration in credit availability. The governor explained that while households are borrowing more, wage increases have not kept pace, contributing to a complex situation where funding costs for housing rise faster than household income growth. This dynamic has the potential to pressure monthly family budgets and forebearers alike, especially for first-time buyers or those renewing mortgages.
This combination—rapid mortgage expansion coupled with relatively slower wage gains—has prompted the central bank to consider policy options aimed at maintaining financial stability. Authorities have suggested that some preferential mortgage programs, originally intended as temporary anti-crisis measures, should be narrowed or refined to prevent overheating in the housing market while still supporting essential homeownership access.
Observations from early autumn noted signs of cooling in certain segments of the sector, with analysts pointing to indicators that housing demand and pricing had shown overheating in a subset of regions. While concessional mortgage programs were cited as one of the contributing factors, experts emphasized that overheating appeared to be uneven across the country, rather than a uniform national trend.
Looking at the broader picture, the trend in secondary housing prices suggests a retreat from previous peak levels. After reaching recent highs, resale values have begun to edge downward in several markets, which could reflect shifting buyer sentiment, adjustments in financing terms, or policy measures influencing both supply and demand. The evolving balance between new construction costs, credit access, and wage progression continues to shape market outcomes, with policymakers watching the trajectory closely for risks and opportunities across regions.