Dmitry Rylko, the General Director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, IKAR, noted that China may set a new high in Russian flour imports during the current agricultural year which began in July 2023. His remarks, reported by TASS, signal a potential turning point in trade flows between the two countries.
From July through January, China bought around 125 thousand tons of flour from Russia, already surpassing the 80 thousand tons total recorded in the entire previous season. Analysts tracking the market expect continued growth as the year progresses, with several observers predicting that Russia could surpass the 138 thousand ton peak reached in the 2019-2020 cycle. The trajectory aligns with broader shifts in global grain supply chains and reflects persistent demand in East Asia for high-quality flour products from Russia. This momentum underscores IKAR’s assessment of evolving market dynamics and the capacity of Russian exporters to meet rising demand from major buyers in the region, supported by ongoing logistical and trade arrangements noted in industry reports.
In the current season, Russia has shipped more than 630 thousand tons of flour to international destinations, illustrating a sustained export effort aimed at diversifying markets and maintaining steady revenue streams from grain products. The scale of export activity highlights the country’s role in global flour supply and the importance of keeping supply chains resilient, especially amid macroeconomic fluctuations and evolving trade policies.
Earlier, Dmitry Patrushev, the head of Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture, reiterated that the nation does not view the grain agreement as essential for its sales strategy. He indicated that Moscow possesses additional opportunities to sell grain beyond the framework of the agreement, suggesting a multi-vector approach to export markets. This stance reflects Russia’s emphasis on independent trade channels and regional partnerships that can offset potential constraints within any single framework.
Last week, figures were cited indicating the amount of grain Russia has foregone due to the grain agreement. The discussion emphasized the perceived trade-offs between compliance with international accords and access to favorable market conditions for Russian commodities. Observers noted that the country’s decision-making reflects a broader assessment of risks and opportunities in global grain markets, alongside efforts to preserve strategic export routes and contracts with diverse buyers around the world.