The Central Bank of Russia signaled a real concern about renewed oil price volatility, likening it to the long crisis that defined the 1980s. The briefing lays out how shifts in U.S. energy policy, the behavior of OPEC, and changing global demand could push crude prices into a renewed cycle of sharp moves that would ripple through the economy. The regulator described the material as a closed briefing, meant for internal review rather than public dissemination.
The document was prepared for a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Mishustin. One slide warned that oil prices are a serious risk to macroeconomic stability, with other risk factors also identified. It pointed to the pace of U.S. output growth and the influence of OPEC as central uncertainties. The briefing noted that OPEC’s spare capacity is near historical highs and could be on par with Russia’s own crude export volumes, highlighting potential balance shifts in the global market.
The presentation notes that after the spike in oil prices during the period from 1974 to 1985, the market entered an 18-year decline. The slide underscores this sequence with emphasis, using three exclamation marks to capture attention to the magnitude of the drop and the persistence of the downturn in the intervening years.
An energy analyst indicated that Brent could fall to around 60 to 65 dollars per barrel in 2025, a forecast framed by ongoing changes in supply dynamics and global demand expectations. The assessment reflects how price paths depend on production discipline, investment cycles, and geopolitical developments that intersect with energy markets. Such a projection remains one scenario among many policymakers and market participants monitor as they calibrate forecasts and risk hedging strategies.
Earlier comments by an energy specialist suggested that Russia may revise its price ceiling for oil, signaling policy flexibility amid shifting revenue conditions and international market pressures. The suggestion points to the ongoing dialogue around how state controls interact with market prices and how fiscal planning for oil revenues can adapt to evolving market realities.