From January through October, Russia’s federal budget showed a narrowing deficit, landing at 1.235 trillion rubles, or about 0.7% of GDP, according to reports from RIA News. The same agency notes that the shortfall for the January-August period stood at 2.361 trillion rubles, or 1.5% of GDP, and that the budget shifted into a surplus in August. This shift reflects a rebound in monthly balances, with the overall result for October showing a positive trajectory—an added surplus of around 464 billion rubles—indicating a continuing improvement in the monthly cash flow position.
Analysts characterized the trend as a combination of revenue resilience and spending discipline. Non-resource exports played a supportive role by offsetting declines in oil exports, helping to cushion the budget through a mixed revenue picture. Alexander Dzhioev, an Alfa Capital analyst, highlighted inflation dynamics as a contributing factor: when inflation accelerates, turnover taxes, including VAT, tend to generate higher revenue relative to nominal activity. In the same reporting period, oil and gas revenues contracted by about 26.3%, reaching 7.21 trillion rubles, underscoring the sensitivity of the budget to commodity cycles and exchange rates.
Industry observers have noted a broader pattern for the medium-term outlook. Vladislav Antonov, a BitRiver financial analyst, suggested that the 2024-2026 budget framework appears more likely to be implemented, reflecting a degree of fiscal stabilization and policy consistency in the near term. This assessment aligns with cautious commentary from government officials aimed at tempering optimism while underscoring responsible fiscal planning. The overall message emerging from these analyses is that the deficit compression in the early months of the year, followed by a steady improvement, points to a budget that adapts to shifting revenue streams while maintaining a focus on essential public expenditures and debt sustainability. In this context, revenue sources beyond traditional oil and gas, including consumer taxes and other domestic levies, have helped to diversify the fiscal base and support ongoing program funding, even as global energy prices influence the revenue mix. The combination of improved non-resource income, controlled spending growth, and a flexible fiscal stance appears to be the central driver behind the observed deficit reduction and the emergence of a surplus in the late summer and autumn period, according to multiple market perspectives and official fiscal data.