After the fiscal year began with a noticeable deficit, the picture of budget revenues and expenditures stabilized through March. A modest March surplus reduced the cumulative deficit for the first quarter to 2.4 trillion rubles, a trend described by Kommersant based on data from the Ministry of Finance. The shift shows how monthly dynamics can markedly alter quarterly outcomes, even when the yearly target remains substantial.
By subtracting the January and February totals from the January to March results, the publication observed that the individual budget closed March with a small surplus of 183 billion rubles. This turn compares sharply with the first two months of the year, where January posted a monthly deficit of 1.65 trillion rubles and February a deficit of 933 billion rubles. Consequently, the overall budget deficit for the first quarter softened to 2.4 trillion rubles, underscoring how early-year weakness can be offset by subsequent gains.
Even so, the first quarter deficit remains sizable because the budget law sets an annual deficit target of 2.925 trillion rubles. A closer look reveals that budget revenues slipped by 21 percent to 5.677 trillion rubles in the January through March period for 2023. This decline highlights the sensitivity of the fiscal stance to shifts in revenue streams and external conditions, and it raises questions about how the year will unfold against the deficit goal.
The Ministry of Finance points out that a weaker ruble could help replenish the budget in the near term through the sale of energy resources. In addition, the government expects one-time tax receipts totaling about 300 billion rubles from large enterprises. Authorities also hold a reserve stash and 1.5 trillion rubles resulting from the advance transfer of certain transfers to the Social Fund for 2023, providing a cushion for potential shortfalls. These measures illustrate the government’s approach to balancing immediate liquidity needs with longer-term fiscal discipline, while remaining attentive to macroeconomic shifts.
RBC reports that the Accounts Chamber produced an analytical note on the Pension Fund budget execution for 2022. The note notes that at the close of last year the Pension Fund achieved a record surplus of 1.1 trillion rubles, a figure that stands out against the broader budget performance and may influence next year’s policy discussions and financing plans.