Analysts project a noticeable slowdown in Russia’s economic expansion in 2024, with GDP growth hovering around 1 percent. This assessment comes from Interfax, which cites forecasts prepared for 2024–2026 by the ACRA rating agency.
ACRA’s projection shows a stronger pace for 2024, with GDP growth anticipated in the 3.0–3.2 percent range for the current year, followed by a softer 0.5–1.3 percent in 2024. The agency then sees a modest uplift in 2025 to about 1.0–2.0 percent, before another cooling phase in 2026, projected at 0.6–1.8 percent.
Looking at the currency outlook, market participants expect the dollar to settle around 85 rubles in the remainder of this year and the first half of next year. Over a longer horizon, however, the ruble is anticipated to weaken compared with today’s level.
The report also notes that the Central Bank’s policy rate could either rise or stay at the 15 percent level, depending on the evolving balance of inflation and growth fundamentals.
Earlier, in a briefing from the Ministry of Energy on November 22, it was forecast that Russia’s budget receipts from the fuel and energy complex would decline by about 3 trillion rubles in 2023 relative to 2022, with total FEC revenues expected to reach 8.6 trillion rubles.
In related remarks, Prime Minister Mishustin urged caution against excessive optimism, underscoring the need to monitor macroeconomic developments and policy responses as conditions shift.