Even in the face of Western sanctions, Russia is projected to set a new post-Soviet record for drilling activity in 2023, with analysts forecasting that the total drilling kilometers will surpass 30,000. Bloomberg reports this anticipated surge in output, underscoring how Russian oil production has remained resilient amid restrictive measures.
The persistence of Russia’s oil program amid sanctions highlights the country’s ability to adapt. In 2022, Western governments imposed sanctions on numerous drilling equipment suppliers, and the European Union restricted the export of technology used in the Russian energy sector. Yet research by Rystad Energy indicates that only about 15 percent of Russia’s drilling market relies on technology from countries viewed as adversaries, suggesting a significant degree of self-sufficiency and domestic capability.
Western energy service companies such as Halliburton and Baker Hughes exited the Russian market by selling their local units. However, this exit appears to have had limited influence on overall drilling volumes, as the acquisitions were largely absorbed by the Russian state-connected entities that retained and leveraged years of technical know-how and operational experience.
Experts emphasize that high drilling rates are essential to sustain production levels as older fields gradually decline. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies notes that in 2023, about 96 percent of Russian fields have a service life of more than five years, illustrating a broad base of mature assets that require ongoing development and intervention to maintain output.
On the eve of these developments, Russia also prepared to expand its liquefied natural gas exports, with LNG shipments increasing by around 15 percent in the same period. This growth aligns with a broader strategy to diversify energy sales in response to market and policy shifts, as reported by industry analysts and energy researchers.
Earlier forecasts from the World Bank had projected Russia’s GDP trajectory, reflecting undercurrents of both resilience and risk in the country’s economy. For observers in Canada and the United States, the evolving pattern of Russian energy activity—driven by technical self-reliance, state participation, and strategic expansion of LNG—offers a lens into how sanctions and global energy demand interact in the longer term. The picture that emerges is one of adaptive capacity, where policy constraints may shape, but do not simply derail, the country’s production and export ambitions, with implications for global markets and energy security. [Bloomberg] [Rystad Energy] [Oxford Institute for Energy Studies] [World Bank]