A monthly survey conducted for the central bank tracks how households in Russia form expectations about inflation. The latest readings show a two‑step shift between February and March. In February, inflation expectations declined by 13.7 percentage points, and by March they had moved to 12.9 percent, signaling a softer but still elevated outlook for price growth. For investors watching North American markets, these shifts matter because they help gauge how consumers adjust spending, savings, and demand in response to policy signals and exchange‑rate movements.
Looking at the earlier months, the January reading stood at 14 percent. December 2024 recorded 13.9 percent, while November and October were both at 13.4 percent and September at 12.5 percent. These sequential figures illustrate a gradual easing of inflation expectations through the autumn and early winter, but they remain well above typical targets and continue to influence pricing behavior across the economy.
Actual inflation trends painted a firmer picture. Inflation remained at February levels in March, at 16.5 percent. Among households with savings, the inflation figure did not change from February and stood at 13.6 percent. Among those without savings, inflation rose from 18.4 percent to 18.8 percent in February, underscoring the gap in price pressures faced by different groups and the importance of reserves for buffering rising costs.
On February 14, the Central Bank kept the key rate at 21 percent for the second consecutive decision. Throughout 2024, the policy rate had been raised three times after a sequence of hikes in 2023. The central bank’s stance has been to maintain a high rate to anchor expectations and dampen price growth while monitoring the impact on growth and financial stability. Market participants in North America and Europe have watched these moves closely due to spillovers into energy prices, currency movements, and global risk sentiment.
The next policy meeting is anticipated to occur in late March, with economists broadly forecasting that the 21 percent rate will be held steady for the near term. This expectation aligns with the central bank’s cautious approach to balancing inflation control with the need to support the domestic economy. For international observers, a held rate suggests continued tight liquidity conditions that could influence commodity prices and cross-border trade finances.
Earlier remarks from a senior government official indicated that 2024 price growth reached about 9.5 percent, with food prices rising around 11.1 percent. The official described the economy as cooling under control, pointing to the effectiveness of policy measures while acknowledging ongoing price pressures in certain sectors. Analysts note that such signals underscore the presiding priority of inflation containment even as growth remains fragile.
Overall, monetary policy as observed through the central bank’s actions remains calibrated, aiming to sustain price stability while assessing the longer-term outlook. For Canadian and American readers, the persistence of high inflation in large economies and the resulting monetary policy trajectories abroad can influence currency dynamics, risk appetite, and global investment strategies. The Russian case demonstrates how inflation expectations, actual price movements, and policy settings interact to shape consumer behavior, savings decisions, and the broader macroeconomic environment.