The pace of growth in prices for secondary homes in Russia is expected to slow down by late 2023, yet a steep drop in overall housing costs is not anticipated. This view was shared by Konstantin Aprelev, vice president of the Russian Association of Realtors, in a discussion with kp.ru.
He noted that many people hold elevated expectations for inflation and, fearing higher costs, prefer to invest ruble savings in something understandable to the average buyer. Real estate, he argued, remains a natural choice in Russia for such investments.
Still, persistent high mortgage rates could dampen demand for second homes if these rates stay elevated for an extended period, since the real estate market in the country is heavily driven by mortgage-backed transactions.
According to Aprelev, price growth in the primary housing market is unlikely to mirror the rise seen in the secondary market. He also pointed out that the supply of new buildings is unlikely to shrink significantly in the near future.
He added that the rate of price increases in new housing will slow, albeit with a slower trajectory compared to the secondary market. He believes the demand will continue to focus on new projects that meet two criteria: they are nearing commissioning and they demonstrate high quality.
Konstantin Barsukov, another market expert and member of the Russian Association of Realtors, previously warned that developers in Russia may continue to reduce apartment sizes as a strategy to offset rising costs. The underlying trend would be a tighter market in the medium term, with developers seeking to preserve margins while adjusting product specs to market realities.
There has also been discussion among real estate professionals about policies affecting construction lending, including proposals related to mortgages on housing under construction. The ongoing debate highlights how financing structures and incentives can shape both supply and demand in Russia’s housing sector.