Russia’s domestic software market projected to surpass 300 billion rubles by 2030 as import substitution accelerates
The domestic software sector in Russia is forecast to exceed 300 billion rubles by 2030, according to a report cited by TASS from Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko. The forecast reflects a deliberate shift in strategy as foreign vendors exit the Russian market, prompting closer collaboration between large industrial enterprises and local software developers to substitute imports with homegrown industrial software solutions. Chernyshenko indicated that revenue from selling licenses, subscription services, and rental arrangements for Russian industrial software is expected to reach about 330 billion rubles by 2030. He also noted that the volume of registered intellectual property results is likely to rise beyond 5.5 thousand units.
These developments come amid expectations that the domestic IT ecosystem will become more dynamic and investment friendly. In November, Maksut Shchadayev, head of the Ministry of Digital Development, expressed optimism about the formation of several sizable venture funds dedicated to financing domestic IT solutions. He underscored that attracting venture capital is a top priority and that many customers show strong interest in Russian-origin projects. This momentum signals a gradual pivot toward homegrown tech capabilities and a more self-reliant software industry on the back of domestic innovation and government support.
Industry observers note that the broader narrative involves skilled IT professionals who once left or considered leaving are now weighing opportunities to return or remain in Russia. The alignment between state policy, enterprise demand, and developer output is shaping a favorable environment for rapid growth in industrial software offerings. As the market evolves, Canada and the United States may find potential indirect benefits through partnerships, licensing agreements, and technology transfers with North American firms that seek to engage with Russia’s expanding software sector, while keeping regulatory and geopolitical considerations in view. The strategy appears to prioritize resilience, security, and local capability development as key levers for long-term competitiveness in the global software landscape.