Russian authorities may ease the rules governing how exporters convert their foreign currency earnings into rubles, potentially reducing the mandated sale from 90 percent to a range around 50-70 percent. This view came from Alexander Bakhtin, an investment strategist at BCS World of Investments, in a conversation with socialbites.ca. He was commenting on the government’s proposal to extend the requirement for selling export earnings through the end of 2024. The discussion highlighted how this policy tweak could impact market behavior and the currency outlook for Russia.
Bakhtin noted that the mandatory return and sale thresholds could shift in response to changes in commodity price tables, fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, and broader macroeconomic indicators. The analyst framed the policy as a flexible tool whose precise level would depend on incoming data about energy and commodity markets, as well as the pace of economic activity.
The strategist suggested that extending the income measure might support a stronger ruble, especially if the government keeps the policy in place longer. He projected that in the first quarter of 2024 the dollar could stabilize around 87 rubles, with occasional movements toward the 83.5-85 ruble band. For the euro, he estimated ranges of 93-95 rubles, acknowledging that currency trajectories could shift with changing global risk sentiment and domestic financial conditions. He also pointed out that a higher central bank rate could bolster the ruble by attracting yield-seeking capital, given the policy key rate stood at 16 percent at that time.
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation signaled backing for extending the measure, while the Central Bank did not find an immediate justification for the extension. More details were reported by the publication Newpapers.Ru, which provided additional context for the ongoing policy debate.
Since October 16 of the previous year, domestic exporters have been required to credit 80 percent of the foreign currency they receive into accounts with Russian banks and to sell 90 percent of the credited earnings on the domestic market. The regime applies to 43 company groups and has been in effect through April 30, 2024, shaping how firms manage their currency exposures and liquidity.
Earlier, President Vladimir Putin discussed possible adjustments to currency control mechanisms, signaling a readiness to recalibrate policy in response to evolving economic conditions. The broader consequence is that market participants monitor these policy moves closely, as they influence capital flows, inflation expectations, and the ruble’s relative strength in both domestic and international markets.