Businessman Oleg Deripaska has warned that Russia could slip into an economic trap in 2024, a scenario that might push budget revenues lower than expected. The entrepreneur shared these concerns through a Telegram channel, outlining how global price trends for commodity goods, including Russia’s exports, are currently sliding. His assessment suggests that a softer international price environment could shrink the income that funds public programs and services.
Deripaska noted that Russia posted a record tax collection of 46 trillion rubles, but he warned that even with strong receipts this year, the outlook for next year could look far less certain. In his view, the budget trajectory could tilt toward weakness as energy and commodity prices stagnate or fall, pressuring the state’s fiscal position and complicating policy choices.
He warned that the budget might face a deficit ranging from 10 to 12 trillion rubles if revenue streams do not recover. From his perspective, the path out of this tight fiscal situation would require structural changes and proactive government action, but he expressed doubt that there is current political will to implement the necessary reforms.
On 17 November, the State Duma of the Russian Federation advanced the 2024-2026 federal budget in its third reading. The document projects 2024 income at 35 trillion rubles, a figure that aligns with the prior fiscal framework and has already cleared the Federation Council. The forecast underscores the challenge of balancing ambitions for growth with the reality of constrained revenues amid a softer global demand environment.
Earlier remarks by Deripaska suggested that the enthusiasm for and the tactical posture around US military engagement might be waning, a development with potential economic and geopolitical ripple effects. For policy analysts and observers in Canada and the United States, the implications are clear: shifts in Moscow’s budget dynamics could influence trade patterns, energy markets, and demand for commodities that are central to both economies.
As markets in North America and Europe digest signals from Washington, Ottawa, and their allies, the question for investors and policymakers becomes how Russia will adapt to a lower revenue base without triggering destabilizing policy measures. Some analysts believe that diversification of revenue sources and a realigning of expenditure priorities could help cushion the impact, while others argue that persistent external pressures and domestic constraints may limit the options available. In any case, the situation highlights the interconnections between global commodity prices, fiscal health, and strategic choices facing major economies in the region.
For observers monitoring Canada and the United States, the evolving budget picture in Russia adds another layer to the broader energy and commodity market narrative. If price pressures persist, they could influence currency dynamics, trade flows, and investment confidence across North American markets. The broader takeaway is that fiscal stability in large commodity-reliant economies remains highly sensitive to external price cycles and to domestic political will for reform.
Ultimately, the exchange between fiscal projections in Moscow and the global price environment will shape the policy landscape for years to come. Markets will watch closely how Russia adapts its strategy to preserve fiscal health while managing the social and economic pressures that come with a tighter revenue envelope. The discussion continues to unfold as governments, investors, and businesses in North America weigh the potential risks and opportunities that accompany a shifting global economy.