Official projections show that the average nominal monthly wage in Russia, calculated before personal income tax and inclusive of bonuses and allowances, is set to rise over the next three years. The forecast from the Ministry of Economic Development outlines how earnings and household spending may evolve, with the national business press highlighting the path ahead.
The forecast envisions a sustained climb in nominal wages, moving from a base around 88,285 rubles toward roughly 119,296 rubles by 2027, signaling a total gain of about 35 percent over four years. The year 2024 is projected to show a substantial rise from the prior year, with wages set to reach about 119,296 rubles, while the growth pace is expected to ease in the subsequent years. For 2025, wages are expected to average about 99,952 rubles, a 13.2 percent increase; in 2026 they are projected to reach roughly 110,169 rubles, up 10.2 percent; and by 2027 the level stands around 119,296 rubles, up 8.3 percent from the previous year.
In late August, the president noted that real wage growth from January to May 2024 reached about 10.1 percent.
He explained that rising wages help sustain strong consumer demand, pointing to retail turnover that rose 8.8 percent in the first half of the year.
The head of state has also stated that a large share of Russians live paycheck to paycheck.
Economists caution that wage forecasts rely on inflation trends, employment levels, and external economic conditions. When wages rise faster than prices, household purchasing power strengthens; if inflation accelerates, the real gains may be limited. The forecast underscores wages as a central driver of domestic demand in a period of moderate global growth, while regional differences and sectoral shifts can shape how different communities experience these changes.
Overall, the projection points to a gradual improvement in earnings that could bolster consumer activity in the economy, yet remains sensitive to macroeconomic policy, price dynamics, and energy market developments on the world stage. Observers will watch how wage dynamics interact with inflation, unemployment, and regional economies as the plan unfolds across the country.