Predictions point to a steady rise in Russia’s average monthly earnings, with a scenario where the typical salary could approach 140 thousand rubles by 2030 if wage growth keeps pace with the planned increases to the minimum wage. This assessment emerges from discussions with economist Denis Raksha, who shared his perspective in conversation with NSN, outlining a plausible path for wage dynamics over the coming years.
President Vladimir Putin has underscored the government’s commitment to boosting the minimum wage, signaling a target of at least 35 thousand rubles by 2030. The policy framework links the minimum wage progression to broader wage trends across the economy, suggesting that improving low-end earnings could help lift overall living standards. By 2025, the minimum wage is projected to represent roughly 48 percent of the average earnings, according to Raksha’s examination of current trajectories and official projections.
Raksha explained that if the minimum wage reaches its target and wage growth continues along a similar path, the average salary could hover around 70 thousand rubles. In that scenario, about half of all salaries would be below this level and half above, indicating a balanced distribution at mid-range earnings. He noted that the existing average is moving toward a figure near 80 thousand rubles and is likely to rise as the economy expands and productivity improves.
Looking further ahead, the economist suggested that the current growth path could roughly double the average salary by 2030, arriving at approximately 140 thousand rubles. Even today’s figures would mark a meaningful uplift in household income, with broader implications for consumer spending, savings, and economic resilience across households across the country.
Raksha highlighted that the minimum wage is reviewed on an annual basis, with authorities aiming to set it at a level that grows faster than inflation. He argued that this approach serves as a social policy lever aimed at reducing poverty and lifting living standards over time, while also supporting wage growth more broadly as the economy evolves.
Recent data from Rosstat indicate ongoing improvements in wage growth within the Russian economy. Analysts emphasize that the pace of increases will depend on macroeconomic conditions, productivity gains, and a range of policy decisions made in the years ahead. These factors collectively shape the trajectory of wages, inflation, and overall economic health, influencing how households experience income changes as the country navigates global markets and domestic reforms.