Interfax reports that Anzhelika Rogozhkina, the deputy head of the bank and the regional manager for VTB in Kuzbass, foresees a clear slowdown in mortgage activity across Russia. She projects the total volume of new home loans could fall by roughly 35 percent by the end of 2024, a forecast set against a shifting policy backdrop and evolving lending conditions as the market absorbs a changing economic reality. Rogozhkina notes that authorities have restructured concessional support programs and lenders are recalibrating credit offers to reflect new capital rules and risk assessments that guide who can qualify and at what price. In this environment, banks adjust their risk appetites while households weigh the cost of borrowing against the need to secure shelter during a period of rising interest rates and tighter financial scrutiny.
Rogozhkina points out that the ongoing reshaping of concessional mortgage schemes is narrowing the pool of potential qualifiers for loans at prevailing market rates. Terms once accessible to a broad slice of buyers are increasingly difficult to obtain, and many borrowers are looking beyond the domestic market for financing options. The practical effect is clear: access to affordable mortgage credit is becoming more restricted as lenders apply stricter criteria and demand clearer demonstrations of real financial need. Banks say the objective is to preserve loan portfolios while keeping housing finance available to those who genuinely qualify, even as buyers search for competitive products in a market that may not always meet the hopes of households buying their first home or moving to a larger dwelling.
Looking ahead, the expert argues that the target audience for concessional mortgages will continue to shrink. Loans will be issued mainly to cover genuine personal needs, with a smaller share used for speculative or investment purposes. In this climate, lenders will proceed with caution, prioritizing sustainable debt servicing over aggressive leverage, as the market adjusts to tighter criteria and shifting demand dynamics. Observers note that the shift could slow the pace of affordable housing projects, influence regional development plans, and affect the tempo of homebuilding across major cities and smaller towns as buyers reassess affordability and price expectations.
Earlier this year, Ildar Khusainov, the head of the developer Etazhi, criticized preferential mortgage schemes. He argued that many of the problems facing Russia’s real estate market could have been avoided if a larger portion of government support had been rolled back when the Covid emergency subsided in 2021. His remarks contribute to a wider debate about how much government involvement should steer housing demand, construction activity, and price movements in a market undergoing rapid change. Industry observers note that policy choices in the next quarters will continue to influence lending and construction as operators adapt to tighter rules and more cautious buyers.
Russians are weighing steps to guard their homes when mortgage payments become burdensome. The issue goes beyond keeping a roof overhead to protecting financial stability as lending rules tighten and costs fluctuate. Across the country households, lenders, and policymakers watch credit conditions as the year ends, seeking clarity on balancing affordability with risk and ensuring long term housing security. In the months ahead, families will evaluate options such as refinancing where feasible, extending tenors, or exploring government assistance programs, while banks adjust product features to reflect new risk profiles and capital costs. The broader question remains how housing access can be maintained while keeping loan books healthy and neighborhoods thriving.