Mortgage broker and real estate expert Dmitry Rakuta warned that the path ahead for housing loans in Russia could become markedly tougher, with the mortgage market likely to shrink and access to credit narrowing. In a conversation with 360 TV channel, he suggested that a mortgage might soon feel like a luxury that many applicants cannot secure, not only because of tougher approvals but also due to a higher likelihood of rejection.
“This year appears destined to be the year of expensive mortgages,” Rakuta stated. “Approval will be challenging, and obtaining a loan will be tough. A mortgage may be viewed as a luxury not just in terms of the product itself but in the hurdles to get it approved.” He predicted a notable uptick in mortgage denials, driven by tighter lending standards and stricter oversight.
There was already public discussion in the State Duma about a bill empowering the Central Bank to limit mortgage issuance. Rakuta believes that if such a law passes, the regulator would be empowered to conduct random inspections of lending institutions and impose targeted sanctions on those that deviate from established methodologies.
“If the Central Bank detects that a bank receives a large volume of mortgage applications but does not adhere to its approved methodologies, sanctions could follow,” the expert explained. This view underscores a broader trend toward tighter regulatory control over mortgage markets and credit risk management.
The broker emphasized that granting additional powers to the regulator would effectively tighten mortgage access. The Central Bank had already called out the high debt burden carried by Russians in 2020, warning that many debtors were straining under repayment obligations.
Beyond the new restrictions, Rakuta noted that the program supporting loans for new buildings is set to expire in July. If it is not extended, borrowers would face even stricter qualification requirements, further limiting access to financing for new construction and home purchases alike.
To provide context, the draft law envisions the Central Bank’s authority to cap mortgage lending and consumer loans in order to reduce household debt levels. Senators and deputies led by Anatoly Aksakov, who chairs the Duma Financial Market Committee, have proposed that, if approved, the Bank of Russia could begin applying macroprudential limits from June 1. This would introduce a systemic brake on lending during periods of rising risk and debt accumulation.
In a broader policy discussion, lawmakers have also considered how to balance consumer protections with the need to maintain access to housing finance for families. The debate centers on ensuring that lending remains sustainable while avoiding abrupt credit famine that could stall housing markets and economic activity in the country.
Analysts point out that any shift toward tighter controls could have ripple effects on housing demand, construction, and household budgets. Prospective buyers might encounter longer processing times, stricter income verification, and higher down payment expectations. Mortgage brokers and lenders are likely to adapt by adjusting underwriting criteria, increasing loan reserves, and implementing more rigorous risk assessment practices to align with the evolving regulatory framework.
From the consumer perspective, the evolving policy landscape underscores the importance of careful financial planning. Homebuyers may need to reassess scenarios involving interest rate trends, total borrowing costs, and the long-term affordability of mortgage payments. Financial education, prudent budgeting, and exploring a range of mortgage products could help individuals navigate tighter conditions without sacrificing their homeownership goals.
Experts stress the value of staying informed about regulatory developments and their potential impact on monthly payments, loan approvals, and the availability of mortgage credit. As the market adapts, lenders, regulators, and borrowers alike will be watching closely to gauge how policy changes translate into real-world access to housing finance and the long-term health of the mortgage sector.