Responding to a question from a reporter for socialbites.ca, Denis Kovalev, who leads the personal loan division at Rosbank, stated that the Russian mortgage market remains stable and shows no signs of overheating. The assessment emphasized that current payment delays are very low, far below common risk thresholds, suggesting healthy borrower performance and solid credit quality across the sector. He noted that the main challenges the market faces at present concern the level of interest rates and the pace of demand, which appear constrained rather than expanding rapidly.
Kovalev added that in recent years, including commentary from the Central Bank of Russia, there has been talk about overheating in the mortgage market. He questioned the source and reliability of some of the regulator’s data, suggesting that market signals may sometimes be interpreted differently by different authorities or observers.
In September, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina indicated that the regulator perceived signs of overheating in the mortgage market, pointing to rapid growth in loan volumes and a notable divergence between prices for newly issued homes and for properties in secondary markets as the primary indicators. The statement underscored a concern that lending expansion could outpace fundamentals in the housing market, raising questions about affordability and risk concentration.
Following these remarks, some members of the State Duma argued that the perceived overheating could be influenced by the Bank of Russia’s own policy actions, suggesting that regulatory measures might amplify certain market dynamics rather than simply reflect underlying conditions. Observers emphasized the need for careful data interpretation and a balanced approach to macroprudential policy to prevent undue stress in the housing finance system.
Meanwhile, official statistics showed continuing signs of acceleration in broader goods and services markets, indicating persistent overheating tendencies across several sectors. Analysts cautioned that while mortgage-specific risks may be contained for now, a broader inflationary backdrop and shifting monetary conditions could alter the interplay between demand, prices, and credit availability in the near term, requiring ongoing monitoring and timely policy adjustment [citation: regulatory reports].